Symptoms of crisis behavior

1.1.2. Symptoms of crisis behavior:

The crisis will be long, extremely long and so be ready to play “for a long time”:

This crisis is a cascading, repeated cycle along coil of flowing spiral, but every convolution has its own characteristic property.

The main idea: Should it be cured or will it be over anyway? It will not pass by itself, will not resolve, it is to be cured.

For a start, remember this, and it will come in handy time and again: Animosity and hatred usually start with inspiration and admiration. Do not arouse admiration of you. Do not arouse inspiration of you. Otherwise you will get hatred, aggression and animosity. Or till the rest of your life you will have to: repress the ones who are inspired by you and admire you, or will always try to please them, which is even worse.

To seek after happiness in words is foolish. Therefore earning money in order to prove something to somebody is the straight and narrow path to hell. And it is even more so if you try to prove something to yourself. The same is for trying to achieve a success so as to win the recognition of society or to earn someone’s goodwill or love. It is a fact that one can attract someone’s attentions with his own words (or actions, or results), but should this attention be regarded as a good reason for happiness? This is the point you are to decide by yourself and for yourself. Think what happens to you, if there will be no one you would be able to show your importance and/or the state of being relevant to. What will happen to you, if there is no one to be reflected in? And what the value of the mirrors (people, events, and conceptions) is, with respect to which your results, your achievements and your success are so important. (pay your attention to the “effect of absolutely flexible bar” – we tell about that a bit later) What the value of all people, ideas, theories and even the whole world is, with respect to which you can state clearly the following: “I do exist” “I am real”.

Your results cannot be more real than you are. And you are as real as the world around you is.

“The happiest ones are men of motley, fools, utter fools and the carelesses as for they know no twinges of conscience,

do not torment themselves with fear of miseries coming, do not flatter themselves with hopes of future blessings”

Strugatsky

1.1.2.1. General approach and symptoms.

“The more developed brain the less opportunity to become happy”

I do not remember who said it

The crisis will look more like waves: drop, light relaxation, drop again.

Stages of the crisis waves development: wave setup – stabilization – enhancement – new wave setup again.

Present crisis is a cascade of waves, and it is a one way road; and the question is for how long it would be possible to stabilize the state maintaining “status quo”. Therefore symptoms are to be kept track constantly, and during the periods of short term enhancement of state even more carefully.

Laws of crisis symptomatology:

Law one: every next convolution of crisis does not happen without symptoms that precede it. (There is no justice but there is nature’s expediency that is not always evident)

Law two: Every next convolution of crisis does not happen without evident reasons, but source of every next crisis wave is not necessarily evident. The reason is the guilty one and it is the attitude of punishing the responsible for the ruin of your own hopes and expectations, for the state of affairs when everything is proceeding vice versa your wishes. The source is the place and vector of starting a trend and this means that, cooperating with developing tendencies, you can use them for the own welfare. Look for the source, do not look for the reasons.

Law three: Not all the symptoms and reasons will be pronounced. As for the late crisis waves, soft symptomatology will be a characteristic feature.

Law four: Increase of confidence, solidarity and complete readiness for action is the most effective way to decrease the acuteness of the crisis behavior.

Pantostructure effect “Symptom”.

The main symptom: Increasing of acuteness of social processes and market relations, and index of uneasy suspense is the direct indicator for the next crisis wave approach. Formally, it becomes even quieter but it is very uneasy silence. “Let them shoot now and then, but not a momentary lull in the fighting”

Important: some crisis waves will be soft and not much evident. They will approach very, very slowly, like in the effect of a “boiled frog”. Some people associate crisis with a so called film-catastrophe: explosions, ruin, decline – most likely it will absolutely not be so. Wars will be short, but states of depression will be continuing and exhausting. One should not think it will be beautiful, visually dynamic and tragic, like a catastrophe; most likely, it will be like slow wasting away of lingering chronic disease, which sometimes becomes more intense, sometimes lessens; so, as you can see, everything is humdrum, sometimes sluggish and even boring. Even if rate of exchange in your country is kept in check or, for instance, prices for prods do not seem to be enhanced much and suddenly, it does not mean that crisis wave is not developing intensively. Even if you do not feel that through your everyday conditions of life, it does not mean economic depression is not developing.

A very sure sign is increase in frequency of periods of symptoms appeared; it shows that next crisis wave is approaching extremely intensively and is just about to burst out.

A proactive blow: breakwater building and a forestall blow. For example, in a forest one should kindle fire coming from the opposite direction to put out a conflagration. A submarine at certain depths hides under temperature or stream stratums of water that sharply lowers determinability of a vessel by any means of detector. To prevent illness, a preventive inoculation is done. Generally speaking, there is a great number of methods of counter attack and forestall maneuver, and it will be different for each country and every crisis wave. A question: can I undertake forestall effects? Yes, you can and you should. It is better to take preventive measures than to struggle against consequences.

It is a law that every crisis wave will cut down about 25 % of all the vulnerable in a certain field. Let us explain. On average, 30 % of companies will survive without heavy tolls, 25 % will become conglomerate mergers, another 25 % will suffer great losses, and only about 20 % of companies will be found lacking vitality. And so, only 25 % of them will perish fast right away, i.e. 5 % of the general number of the market participants. For example, crisis wave of production cutting down will remove about 25 % of companies out of the market, some will escape destruction, some will merge (join) with others to survive; thus, in real terms of the number of participants, only 7,5 % of numerical strength of companies will leave fast. Another example: every crisis wave of employment will lead to 25 % growth of unemployment of all people who have no role to play in the market up to this time. That is during the periods of crisis waves not all the 100% of the people that should be fired are fired, but 25 % of them; the others remain employed on different terms and on various pretexts. Destructions caused by every crisis wave will come to 25 % of the possible 100 %, and if, all of a sudden, Lord forbid, the next wave strengths the previous one, then those two together will “eat up” the rest 75 % of the potentially fired, yet actually spared.

Saying this we mean that economy system has so much power, so many compensatory and balancing mechanisms and mechanisms of its integrity preservation that any field will protect 75 % of potentially fired and sacrifice 25 % of absolutely useless, incapable and unadapted to a certain field workers. And it is good, as the fear to lose one’s work will force one to advance and change, but the necessary traditions will remain.

Good news.

The worst choice of the reaction to the crisis is the reaction after it has happened instead of preventive measures and PPA (planned-prophylactic actions). It is very important to understand this, as all the risks of the crisis waves development: a) are yield to early diagnostics; b) can be forecasted as for a scale, activity and consequences without creating much difficulties; c) and the most important point is that preventive measures can be taken at the early stages – you cannot cancel rain but you can take an umbrella with you, put on appropriate footwear and a raincoat.

Bad news.

The thing that strengthens the effect of crisis waves course: a great number of officials and official circumlocution that inheres in them. The more barriers for the flow of cash, information, decisions and management influence the more losses of the crisis manifestations.

The main rule at the times when crisis manifestations become acute is to remove all the negative manifestations fast and resolutely, to cut short a situation, to relieve acuteness and destroy any rumors and conjectures as much as possible by the means of information media.

The main criterion of manifestation symptoms: decrease of business activity, business correspondence intensity (according to the Express Delivery company index), business processes, speed of money circulation, durable goods consumption, just as consumption of small household appliances, food consumption is being shifted towards cheaper goods. Scenario of wave setup: two or three waves of slowing down (speed of processes is decreasing) and then shock braking in a separate field. Absolutely whole economy will not be entirely slowing down, but segmentally, i.e. it will be happening to each branch separately.

A new crisis wave will be seizing the initiative from the previous one just at the moment it may seem that all the consequences have been allocated and there is nothing to be worried about yet. The waves each will be behaving rather guilefully and are unlikely to repeat themselves in the channels of their streams, but most likely to be repeated in some symptoms of their approaching.

The acutest stage of every next coil of the crisis, every next crisis wave setup is the first month, then, situation is fading away gradually.

The speed of reaction to the crisis manifestations – first month is the most critical. But we will tell about that a bit later. The crisis is not the road to death, but the way to regeneration, to tremendous structural transformation and new coil of evolution.

A point of significance: the way of life will change after each coil of the crisis, and behind five or seven years it will be changed so greatly that to see it today is extremely hard, if it is possible at all. And it is even harder behind the horizon of planning for twenty years. Individual fragments can be foretold easily, but the whole future picture of life will astonish everyone a lot, some will be pleased, some saddened.

Pantostructure effect “absolutely flexible bar”.

A very cheerful characteristic feature of these crisis waves: if a crisis wave strikes the poor, it will have a destroying affect on the rich, but if a crisis wave strikes the rich, the poor will run the destruction, then. Imagine a vibration that is transmitted through absolutely flexible bar (physics has a concept of an absolutely flexible bar that performs loss-free energy transmission). If it is struck at one side, it is destroyed at the other one. It is such an original lever, but an oscillatory one.

Small conclusion: If you do not want social upheavals in your country, don’t disturb the rich, help them keep their socially important enterprises. If you do not want economy destructions, don’t try to impoverish your country’s people a lot, don’t devalue the currency much. If you devalue, do it smoothly. If you cannot do it smoothly, do it sharply, but not too often. J (you don’t know whether to laugh or cry, but it will be so in some countries, according to the worst scenario)

Neither the rich, nor the poor is guilty of the crisis. It so fell out that the crisis happened to us, and we happened to this crisis J (the term “happened” in all the senses of this word, either intimate sense (dog sense) and event-trigger sense). And if we are not contented with the crisis, the crisis also will not be contented with us, i.e. its participants. And God forbid! – it might get angry and stay until it gets satisfaction of us. Angry crisis always stays until the moment of its absolute satisfaction. So we should enjoy the crisis, then, it might enjoy us quickly and go home it comes from. It comes from nowhere and leaves for nowhere. And this nothing but nil, that everything comes from, is always doing violence to us, depriving us of our illusions, hopes, and disappointing us with our might-have-been expectations. So at this time it is doing violence to us by means of the crisis, one might say, testing for strength. But the most ridiculous is that the crisis is a blood relative to us, as we are actually from nowhere, too; we, actually, come from the same nil.

We come from this nil, we will retire to the same nil, having left things as they are, even if everything will be absolutely different or the reverse.

A point of significance: crisis phenomena will not be over all by themselves, actions are needed to be taken. It is necessary. Delay of reaction to a crisis wave will just strengthen the traumatic effect and lengthen the time of going out of the consequences from this crisis wave. There can be no perhaps, no hopes for-one-says-it-will-resolve-by-itself. Jut act.

Once again, again and again – one should set his hopes only on himself. The chief thing is to preserve yourself and your business at the times of the crisis waves pressure, i.e. at the periods of sharp acute conditions. It is like being under fire when “we have to stand firm up the time the reinforcements come”. Pressure will exhaust itself, so the main thing is to hold out and do not panic, do everything calmly, deliberately, in a relaxed, ordinary and even boring way.

Pantostructure effect “Breakdown”.

And now to the point of significance – it is called “breakdown” or, in other terms, level of detailed drafting. Absolutely each situation has all the symptoms described to a greater or lesser extent, the question is only in the extent of intensity. Schneiderian membrane is always wet and it is to be so, and one should or should not call something coryza only if he or she specializes in it.

If a shot bangs, you will pick up your ears, will start listening and scrutinizing. But you should have been listening and scrutinizing earlier. As the front-line soldiers of the World War II say, “If a bullet has already flown over, it is too late to bend down your head. But if your emplacement has been shot, it has to be changed immediately”.

Amateurs and average men with their hypochondria and detailed examining will only go from bad to worse. As for such a function on board there is a special function, which is called “lookout”. More often, it is a sailor on duty, whose task is to look over the horizon for the purpose of detecting an enemy’s ship. Further, there is a sample of all ships’ silhouettes existed in the world at his disposal, including possible enemy’s silhouette; he puts them on the silhouette seen and tells exactly what kind of ship it is and what country it belongs to.

A joke.

One day a somehow thoughtfully-worried man comes to see the physician and says: “Well, you know, doctor, I am very worried about the fact that one of my testicles is a bit higher than the other one. It makes me feel uneasy a lot”. The doctor says: “Take off your clothes. Show it to me. – Well, yes, one is higher than the other, indeed. Let me examine it.” He consults textbooks, encyclopedias, descriptions, reads them for a long time, and then, tearing himself away from encyclopedia on anatomy and urologist reference book, says: “But it is to be by nature”. Having heard this, the patient says the following: “Yes, I know it is to be by nature, but, doctor, you see, it’s inexact somehow”.

Moral: average men, especially the hypochondriac ones should not peer. A microscope or binoculars bring things much more near, magnifying the visible, but: a) do not add understanding to evidence; b) scare with what has been seen because of degree of approximation.

Second joke.

Programmer’s son asks his father:

-       Dad, why does the Sun always rises at one side and sets at the other one?

-       Have you verified that?

-       Yes, I have.

-       Does it work stably?

-       Yes, it does.

-       Aren’t there any fails?

-       There aren’t.

-       Has it been working so for a long time?

-       Very long time.

-       Have there been any censures?

-       Not a single one.

-       Have it saved, then, and do not touch anything under any circumstances.

Moral: rapt attention does not necessarily need interference.

Conclusion: assessment of a situation should be only done by experts, otherwise, you will bring about such a chaos in a regular course of things with your hypochondria and amateurism, that “inexact somehow” will prove to be the most ridiculous variant. As they joke in army, “do not touch technical equipment, it will not let down”.

It is not needed to scrutinize or be scared as there is nothing scary in anything existed on the Earth. Notice the abnormalities only and it will be quite enough. For doing this, a single person will be sufficient in a big company. This person should be given a set of characteristics and their meanings, and abnormalities should be reported only. That is if, for instance, temperature is normal, the report should be “it is normal for the time being”, and it should be only reported according to the time-table of reports; but if temperature is beginning to rise and exceeds the bounds of parameter, it is to be reported immediately.

Please, do not scrutinize. Take on trust that when a symptom shows itself, you will not be able not to notice it. Or else, you will relax your vigilance because of constant scrutinizing, you will have “a bad eye” for this. It is right, when a lookout manager is being changed (rotated) constantly in order not to get tired and to have constantly fresh look.

Re the question of symptomatology: pay your attention to abnormal facts and single episodes, even though they are beyond your present conception. Usually, exactly that kind of “accidental” symptoms of the imminent crisis cut their way into present-day actuality of our reality. But let me say it again: leave behind your hypochondria and fantasies. People say, “The eyes of fear see danger everywhere”.

For your field of business, it is very much necessary to find a “lookout” and a “diagnostician” of symptoms of a next crisis wave. Do not trust to yourself on this matter, you will always fail to run up to it and will not have time for it, but these matters have to be given attention constantly and regularly. Take on trust that money will repay itself very soon. To know a quarter in advance (month, week) about a forthcoming event is an opportunity a) not to suffer much; b) to recover very soon. Draw your attention to that a “lookout” and a “shaman-diagnostician” are two absolutely different people. The first one just notices an event, fact, abnormality. And the second one “knits” a general picture, sorts out and refutes working hypotheses, images and metaphors, suggesting probabilistic diagnosis according to the findings.

Pantostructure effect “Strain”.

One more important feature is that the crisis waves like strain of flu will be peculiar every next time. Every new wave will have its own peculiar, inherent feature, and each new wave will begin from the other, new place. Waves will differ in nature and scenario, and confinement to bed for a patient (world, country, field, company, person) will be similar every time. One should not relax after overcoming a next crisis wave as it is not peace yet but a respite between battles.

The main idea: a shell does not hit the same shell-hole twice; therefore, crisis waves will also be different a lot in scenario and begin from different places. Financial-economy waves are not as terrible as humanitarian, world outlook and ecological ones. The most dangerous crisis waves are the ones that start with international and / or interreligious conflicts. It will lead to short military conflicts and following lingering confrontations. And the most dangerous is that at the same time civilians having being left on their own, will behave themselves predictably in their nonsensical cruelty, and it will worsen situation sharply. It is very difficult to resist schooling habit; sometimes it is not possible at all. These are the different and the most dangerous crisis waves, the waves of social protests. Energy just needs to come out and it does not care who or what to assail. Be careful.

To predict crisis is not a difficult thing, indeed. Crisis is clear in terms of structure and functions but binding stages and symptoms to realities and temporary scales is really difficult. But this is exactly what your chief task is. There is no general panacea but your personal. Universal prosperity cannot be but your personal prosperity. Crisis is science; binding to temporary scale, taking account of power, trends and tendencies, diagnosing symptoms is art and for each field of economy and for each separate country its own artist should be found, a cynical and cool-blooded but kind and patient one. Most likely he is either a young man that has a sage’s attitude towards life or an elderly person with a child’s mentality. I have been lucky as like a choice of selection all my teachers in science have been just like that (the second ones), mischievous and lively old men. Lively people. They have had nimble mind, sense of humor and instantaneous reaction but pedagogical patience, love, care and inexorable demands and refusal to compromise at the same time. Those devils have inspired me for all that J. Each country has such people. I mean each country.

Pantostructure effect: logical connective “fast - fast” and logical connective “slowly - slowly”.

Means of crisis-fighting: general rule is: the faster an anti-crisis remedy begins working the faster it uses the power of influence (exhausts itself) and vice versa: the more slowly either government measure works the longer the positive influence is (stretch out influence). The secret of a wise government is the use of fast and long monetary measures at the same time, acuteness relieving and working “for a long time”, for long-term outlook.

Conclusion: one must react incredibly fast, acting in short-term, middle-term and long-term outlooks in a moment at a time.

Pantostructure effect “Crisis waves stages”.

So, four stages of each crisis wave:

a) Stage one. Sharp drop either in the range “from night till morning” or during the period up to three months. It will always be collapse drop and it will be rapid. Structural speed for different processes is different but for its own scale it will happen almost in a moment. If usual inertance of a process used to be a year long, now, collapse effect of drop will be happening within one day, “from night till morning”. If usual inertance of either process is 50-70 years, now, collapse effect of drop will be happening within two to three months. That is they will be incredibly rapid processes;

b) Stage two. Drop slow down, low grade, on average, approximately within 6 – 9 months. A significant feature during the period of drop slow down is the fact that the system has already taken part and started saving itself, even without deliberate actions of government, points out at retard of the speed of drop.

Necessary explanatory notes to the stage two.

A system, has been attacked, will engage compensative measures, grading destructive powers that are affecting it, thus saving itself. A system, like a “living being” will fight for itself and, saving itself, it will save people being devoted to it. The same stands for a human being when, for example, saving himself, he saves intestinal bacteria and gut organisms living in his body, unconsciously. A system, inhabited by people, only seems to be a “living being” but it is living, indeed. It is an effect of multigreatness and a huge leap in the dimension of systems. Bears do not exist for a hamster. It cannot see them. A bear’s leg is a lanate tree trunk for a hamster (in the case, if a hamster realizes or can imagine a tree as it is, or, for example, a bear). A human being’s intestinal bacterium does not belong to him and does not realize what a human being is and what his life destination is. A human being’s intestinal bacterium lives its own life, which is apart from human’s, and it is not dependent on a human and does not belong to him. Bacterial clumps reproduce and settle in intestines on their own. It is true, though, that bacterial inoculation is made from the outside, for example, as humans’ breast milk or elephants’ parental excrements, or wolves’ vomiting incompletely digested food. A bacterium lives on its own and, by the fact of its being, it allows a human himself to live, otherwise, a human will not get any nutritive material for his existence. But bacterial clumps live in a human body as long as he is alive. The same stands for people, who belong to a system of a higher rank, and who will be protected carefully by the system itself, but not because humans are of a great value, but because people are absolutely integrated into the system, and the system, saving itself, will save and take care of people, who it inhabited by.

c) Stage three. A plateau – wavy behavior of a field – such light rolling on the waves – from one to three years. It is the time for becoming aware of new realities of life and adapting to a new way of life.

d) Stage four. Long-term recovery – rising trend of wavy motions – from seven to twenty years.

Pantostructure effect “Epidemic”. Epidemic nature of crisis waves.

The main idea: No perhaps as it will definitely not resolve by itself.

Imagine that the crisis is a flu epidemic. First, the stock market will have been down, then bank sector, then insurance and leasing, then building, then heavy industry, then light industry, then …, then …, then…

Until all the sections have been down, the crisis will not exhaust itself, and as they will not be sick all at once but gradually and in series (some simultaneously), duration of quite acute crisis waves will last from 5 to 12 years. The acute stage will be lasting from 5 to 12 years and, then, there will be about twenty years of significant structural transformations, but they will be little visible in everyday conditions of life. One ought to consider the crisis to be ended if a) all the fields have already been affected by the crisis, i.e. all of them have been down (field crisis waves have been finished); b) neither field has not being falling for at least one calendar year; c) all this concerns G 20. The point is that, when G 20 recovers or, at least, falling trend finishes, then, the other countries will have a chance, but up the time G 20 overcomes the deadlock of “misunderstanding, unwillingness and distrust”, the other countries will be standing in line like a lamb. But still the crisis is wavy, the crisis waves will resemble epidemic waves.

The first small note: Five crisis waves will originate in the USA; they will be global field crisis waves. The other waves on each continent will be individual and in each country they will be local. From 12 to 17 crisis waves are expected altogether, they will differ in destruction power and vector of their influence. Inner epidemic nature tells about some inertness of the process of spreading the waves around the world. The first crisis wave (stock market) has originated in the USA (August, 2008) and then extended over the rest of the world. The second crisis wave (bank sector) is being arising now (March, 2009) in the USA and, then, from the close of this year (September – December, 2009) will start spreading over the rest of the world (in 2010 - 2011). Then, there will be the third crisis wave, then the fourth one and the fifth one. The USA, the leader of the world economy, will be the one to begin major crisis waves for the first five years of the crisis. Then, markets of individual contents will catch this initiative, each one in its own way, in its specification, in its own peculiar manner.

So, the first five crisis waves will originate in the USA and they will have global field orientation. This will put the world on the side of expedient preservation of the now working world financial architecture.

The following waves will mainly exist intra-continentally and within the countries. This will start up a cycle of social shakes, changes of governments, cascades of ethnic and world outlook (religious) wars, which are always based on economic contradictions. Environmental and natural bad things will be added to this, by the way. Struggle for power and recourses will gain severe forms against the background of famine (on some territories of the world).

The closing waves will be global again and they will concern to panti-structural and world look matters.

The second small note: financial crisis and economy crisis. Economy crisis is always accompanied with financial crisis but financial crisis does not necessary lead to the economy one. Crisis wave, which sweeps across financial sector, “returns back to the earth” those, whose greediness covers their eyes and whose “game-mania” has gained the effect of abuse of adrenalin excitement of a gambling game. But, for example, collapse of stock market does not necessary lead to the problems in real industrial sector of economy. First crisis wave cleans out stock market. This wave, up to the present time, has already been advancing for 7 months (from September, 2008 until this March, 2009) and this first crisis wave still does not seem to be exhausted. But, from the beginning of 2009, the symptoms of the next crisis wave have started to appear, i.e. cleaning up of financial (bank) sector. Presumably, the beginning of the second wave will fall to third and fourth quarter of the year 2009. It is the case, when second wave will have already start its “cleaning” of bank sector of economy while stock market will still be falling.

The third small note: The closing crisis wave will be the most terrible as it is a value crisis wave. The main leitmotif of the wave is everyone stands for himself, but it is better to cooperate. Layout of the passing: public solitude, maniacal diligence in the sphere of natural predisposition, specialization in the sphere of key competence, paranoiac focusing, autistic accuracy and consistency, discipline of measure in what is necessary, nothing that could be superfluous, deliberate asceticism of wealth. The way it appears: to cooperate is more advantageous. But this closing stage will probably begin in about 12 years and it will become a final event of the change to absolutely new way of life in the whole world. Most likely it will be something reminding “asceticism of wealth”, you may be immeasurably rich but at the same time you will be absolutely cleat to the world, society, and the state; but let us tell about that a bit later.

Neither of a human is vulnerable. There were no such people, there are not, and there will not be any of them in the future. Perfect safety did not exist in the past, it does not exist today, and it will not be in the future, but degree of vulnerability of every single person will increase tremendously because of the leap in development of information technologies. Currently working “System “Echelon” (and great number of other financial, fiscal, information and technologically monitoring systems) will seem to be a funny toy comparing to those opportunities which technologies are going to present to their governments in the near future. But one should not be afraid. One should apprehend. One should be careful. Do not be afraid. Once again, the system will compensate all the inner tensions by the means of opposing and balancing tendencies of society. Society is not structured by technologies, technologies only give opportunities. Society is structured by realization, by a deliberate free-will intention. If obeying the laws is safer, they will be obeyed. If obeying the system is unsafe, people will not obey it, no matter how repressing or attractive it is.

The fourth small note: Prices. So, it has happened that at this time money, which are waiting for being invested, and assets (projects), which are ready to accept it and increase it, are at a ratio of 1 to 4 or 1 to 9 (according to different models of estimating). Therefore, prices for everything (for everything in the world if it is not clear enough to somebody) behind the whole crisis (15 – 25 years) will rise from 3 to 100 times. The question is how fast, what for and at what proportion. Most likely, prices will rise most dynamically for the goods of first priority and the goods of luxury rank. Thus, present trend of landslide of prices will be very soon (perhaps within one year) overcome by the trend of inflation (hyperinflation) and / or by the trend of devaluation (creeping or multi-graded one, depending on monetary actions of governments of separate countries).

As soon as commodity volume (volume of all the assets in the world) equalizes with the volume of superfluously printed money, prices will be rising. Prices rise will not be caused by the value rise or demand rise but by the fact of equalizing the earlier allowed disproportion between real economy and the economy of unrestrained money printing for export, money that are flat. As soon as disparity is removed, most likely, it will be too early to think of financial instruments and derivatives (unified reserve currency). Until we have “eaten up” (with prices rise) all the money had been printed superfluously and have impoverished life of each country’s people for the benefit of their exporters (by devaluation), real economy will not begin to rise. Inflation (hyperinflation) and devaluation are two most characteristic vectors within the next few years. Exactly the least developed countries will suffer the most from these processes, but more developed ones can either “stand blow” better and rehabilitate faster.

Is there no justice? No, there isn’t, just the way we claim. Thus, the one that will suffer from the crisis waves the least will be the USA economy, but the price to be paid for that is the loss of the world leadership. Everything will be alright in the USA, there will not be Apocalypse, the country will remain, but it will become different and this will be happening after the actual president’s term is up (Barak Hussein Obama). But let us revert to prices.

While prices are galloping up, currencies are galloping down, equilibrium state of economy will be waiting for its time to come. After equilibrium state has been fixed (currencies are not falling, prices are not rising within the whole calendar year), slow return to financial derivatives will begin, but it will be on new terms. It does not mean that during all these years stock markets and professional investment managers will not be in demand; it is exactly vice versa, a) a stock market is a perfect detector, just like a thermometer (there will be either a great contango on futures and tremendous middle-term and long-term volatility); b) investment managers are the only people to at least somehow place and save the major quantity of superfluously printed money, thereby giving opportunity for the best (i.e. effective enterprises) ones to survive. It is a fair chance for them but, telling the truth, rules of game will be changing during the game. One has to learn to live following the new rules, ladies and gentlemen. Nothing can be done about that since it is the reality.

Winners gain everything, losers gain death only. Is it unfair? Just like we claim J. But we are more concerned about what to do to save people and nations than how to restore justice. Let the ones, who wish to perish of famine, seek for justice; let the ones, who want to live like a human, work tirelessly but intelligently and with pleasure (they will not want to rest, then, since they will not get tired and it will be interesting, and it will be exciting).

Recommendation: If you have money, that are ready to be invested, and you do not have your own plan (project) on how to invest (escape from devaluation and inflation), the best choice is to look for investment manager. He must be intelligent, resourceful, quick-minded and cautiously, unhurriedly acting, perfectionist and hedonist in private life, terribly loving his business and a workaholic within reasonable limits, value-stable, quick on the uptake (almost in the air), but patient, learn fast, necessarily disciplined and honest one. If you find such a person, give him all your money for business, then. And it would be better to find two or three such people and, having divided all your money into three bast-baskets, hedge your risks. Yes, they will definitely make mistakes. But to err is human, by definition. Even the Most High, being the God Almighty, does not mean not to err. But it is not terrible. Believe me, every day, day after day somebody has to tend your sheep (money) stably and systematically, protecting them from wolves and making their number increase. He has to do it professionally and perseveringly. Do not look for one universal investment instrument as it does not exist. Variety and necessary adequacy is the obligatory condition of stability and reliability of systems of any level.

Reaction to the crisis waves manifestations.

Four main principles of reaction to the next passing wave of the crisis:

a) methodicalness, systematic character, graduality, consistency.

b) methodicalness, systematic character, graduality, consistency.

c) methodicalness, systematic character, graduality, consistency.

d) methodicalness, systematic character, graduality, consistency.

It can be also explained in the other way:

a) methodicalness, methodicalness, methodicalness, methodicalness.

b) systematic character, systematic character, systematic character, systematic character.

c) graduality, graduality, graduality, graduality.

d) consistency, consistency, consistency, consistency.

The very essence does not change because of that.

Does it sound much like keeping drumming to you? That’s right. You have caught the very essence of the days coming correctly. To ride a horse at a dashing pace holding a block in your hand is the lot of a crisis wave, but your destiny is evenly, in everyday manner, monotonously, unimaginably long, the same thing, the same thing, the same thing. Has one approach missed? You lost! Go back to the start line and begin anew. Those, you have completely taken the course by Shahidzanyan “Solo on the keyboard”, know everything about that perfectly well. Thanks God! – Shahidzanyan has, at least, divided the whole course into lessons and let us thank him for we did not have to start from the beginning of the programme but from the beginning of a lesson.

When reading the lines listed above, have you r eyes skipped to the next line, omitting the alike one? And you did it right as it is how the low of energy conservation works in a form of choosing the way of the least resistance. Still, you have lost, it is the fact. And now, my dear, go back to the start lines and re-read each of them without running ahead and skipping. Does it sound much like keeping drumming to you? Yes, it is keeping drumming. But, maybe this way you will understand and feel deeply what in store for all of us is: in everyday manner, monotonously, unimaginably long, the same thing, the same thing, the same thing. But it is the price. Children will have time to be born and grow up within this period. So you should not put off the process of your family’s new generation reproduction. The crisis will be long, really long.

Pantostructure effect “Level of readiness and viability”.

If a crisis wave in all its glory rolls over an unprepared field, unprepared company or unprepared person, neither a field, nor company or a person will be able to go out of it. They should be lent a helping hand in case, if, from the point of view of a state, town and family, of course, there appears to be sufficient reasons for doing that. Sometimes it is better to give the opportunity to die than torture them with transformations. This procedure has something in common with the military hospital in field conditions at the period of active fighting. If a hospital’s throughput capacity is being exceeded by coming wounded men at least twice as many, the wounded men are immediately being classified as badly wounded and lightly wounded. And those ones, in their turn, are classified by the high prognosis for survival (medical statistics is used) and those needing emergency aid with possibility to survive are operated first of all, the next are those to put back into line fast, then the rest. Operations are done quickly, accurately and with high quality, but simply and effectively; nature of organism and patient’s personal mood will do the rest for doctors. “Winners’ wounds are healed up faster”.

To get a field, enterprise or a person ready for a crisis wave approaching, they have to be shaken a bit from time to time: a) light shakes have to be done regularly, such a vibration exciter; b) shake them harshly, strongly and on a large scale from time to time.

Example, to prevent catching cold, one has to be tempered. Tonsillitis predisposition prophylaxis is throat wash with icy water. Alcoholism can be cured with vodka, but in micro dose. It if one is will-powered enough J in order not to make medicine taking more frequent and not to go into hard drinking because of that.

Regular light dynamic shaking of the whole economy is extremely important. It is like getting in apples into a box by shaking them. It somehow resembles road holding or yaw stability. A sailor on duty standing at the wheel or a driver have to do micro movements to the right and to the left, like yawing just a little, adjusting course of a ship or a vehicle all the time in order to keep a ship or a vehicle on the right course.

Conclusion: while driving an automobile, driver should watch the road ahead of him and turn a wheel so as not to fall into a hole. Did you really need crisis to realize all that? To be serious: the whole system, managed by you, has to be lightly shaken all the time and seriously shaken from time to time. This is a very good symptoms test; we mean the symptoms that indicate next wave of the crisis. It is probably the best. If a field or a branch has refused to obey the steering wheel and started behaving unusually, somehow unequally, and little anomalies, which are getting out of general picture and drawing attention to them, are beginning to appear, you should know that next crisis wave is just round the corner.

Pantostructure effect “Reality or hypochondria, born by expectations”.

Here are false and true symptoms of every next crisis wave approaching:

Sensation of experiencing a crisis wave.

The bad side of crisis waves is that they intensify all the inveterate chronic processes, Your country has had, very sharply. As soon as any system weakens, every evil spirit crawls out of all the slits, and feast and Sabbath begins immediately. More often, either system dies of no breaking, but weakening, i.e. its threshold of resistibility is lowering (immunity).

If there was “bumpiness” but it passed aside, do not be happy as this wave will return to take what it deserves. Not a wave will laugh off ridiculously and go away for no particular reason. Draw your attention to the point that some impact of each crisis wave may be quite rather postponed. The fact is that each crisis wave is not a self-dependent occurrence, but a part of a certain succession (as for succession of crisis waves, we tell a bit later). And each crisis wave, like everything on the earth, is taking the line of least resistance, i.e. the line of chronic diseases of Your country, Your company, personally Yours. Therefore, sometimes it may seem that it is just ordinary acuteness of chronic points, but sometimes it will seem that the whole world took up arms against you. But in fact, there is neither that nor this; it is just a wave that, rolling, affects and “irritates” the susceptibilities of and most chronically neglected, have been already fevered fields of economy.

First characteristic feature: at first, there are no terrible sensations: the sun rises, cars are driven, bread is sold, trees grow, children go to school, trains arrive and leave, planes fly. So, as soon as there is a small simultaneous anomaly of all major symptoms, you are to act immediately.

Second characteristic feature: those, have been affected by a wave lightly, will probably be affected by the rest of the waves according to moderately optimistic scenario; but those, have been affected by a wave heavily and thus weakened, will not be spared by a next one, and there is a high probability of that all the following waves will be passing according to aggravating scenario. It is possible, having started with a bad scenario, during the process of the waves passing, to “improve” and skip to a good scenario, i.e. the least traumatic? Yes, it is possible. But it is not that easy, but, still, possible. Patriotism and common sense are needed for that, and everything will be alright in that case.

Third characteristic feature: a crisis wave will rush to attack you at the most inconvenient time for you and it will certainly attack inexorably and unavoidably, having caught you unawares.

Prediction of outcome of consequences of each crisis wave.

Unpredictable!!! As a matter of principle. Absolutely accidental model. Matters of principle and even some details and facts can be known, but the body of scenario of a crisis wave passing is unpredictable. It is unpredictable at the acceptable level of accuracy, which can be called a prediction.

?

So, is it needed to predict? Yes, it is. Will the prediction be exact? No, it won’t. So, is it needed to predict, or not? Yes, it is. But it is necessary to do it before a wave starts. Prediction has sense, then. Otherwise, acute phase will be over faster than you commit a procedure of prediction.

Points of paramount importance when predicting and reacting are: a) scale of crisis wave power, b) scale of crisis wave coverage and c) intensity of its approach. Do it and You will not be sorry for investing in it. Money cannot be superfluous. Saved money is earned money. The price for question is prediction. But we tell about prediction a bit later.

The rule says: it is cheaper to get prepared than to react.

Not to take what is given by the Heaven is to punish yourself.

Not to act when the time comes is to destroy yourself.

Ancient Chinese words of wisdom

Pantostructure effect “Speed of reaction”.

Time of reaction or “hot on the heels”.

Imagine that a next turn of crisis development is a crime. And so, probability of a crime detection decreases with a tremendous speed after the first hour, then after first four hours, then after first twenty four hours, then after the first week, then the process is allowed to develop itself and what we get is an unsolved crime. For example, if a car has been hijacked and it was not found within one day, chances to find it go down to zero.

So, the time of reaction to a next crisis wave and Your successfulness.

First second = there are no losses + there are profits

If you started acting as soon as you find out of a next crisis wave approaching, you will go out of it almost without any loss, and even having gained profit. Explanations are needed here:

1. You started to act from the very first second and it says that: a) You had had preliminarily made prediction of a next crisis wave’s passing and consequences; b) You had had a preliminarily worked out plan, that was set aside waiting for its time to come; c) You have been already trained up to the skills level to begin to work immediately and quickly off the mark. That is You know the things to be expected, You know what is to be done and how it is to be done; and the most important thing is that You can do it as You have been trained and taught to do it, in advance.

2. You will go out of the given crisis wave having gained profits, for sure. All the point is that when You are trained and knowing what to do and how to do, you have a lot of free time, then. While the others are fussing and making a lot of mistakes, you play one or two effective games, which is more than sufficient. Having saved the vector for gaining profits, and having a lot of spare time and some quantity of backups, it is a sin not to experience pleasure in gaining a couple more zeros to what you are operating with at the moment, and not to make a present to yourself in the form of… (well, tastes are different here)

First minute = 5 % of the total possible volume of losses

If you began to work after a minute has passed, this shows you do not much trust your prediction and do not much trust your plan and the most important point is that you have not been trained to act. You have not been trained up to the state of automatism, to the state of reflex. I am sorry to remind this, but when fighting, there is no space for thinking; trained reflexes, multiplied by tactical preparation, and intuition, in the context of the things taking place, or, otherwise, you are not alive at the very first minutes of a fight.

First hour = 30 % of total possible volume of losses

If you began to work after a whole (!) hour has passed, this shows you have a somehow good, so-so prediction but plan needs to be completed and further deliberation, and your readiness to act is far from what is necessary.

First day = 75 % of total possible volume of losses

If you began to work after first twenty four hours has passed, you have already let it out of your sight and you do not already have an opportunity to go out of it without losses; but your reaction is pretty good under utter overestimation of own potential. You pay too much attention to other people’s opinion, and You have too little love for Yourself.

First week. First month. First quarter – You are of no difference to the others by the methods of ignoring yourself. You may praise yourself and congratulate yourself as You have done quite a lot of violence to yourself by having ignored yourself and having saved on yourself.

It is interesting to know whether it is better to feel deprived and defaulted than to feel alright and do your business in a calm manner, producing a result and increasing own financial potentials. Is that like, the sick and the paupers are pitied more? Is pity what you want? Do you really need attention to the own defective state of mind instead of actual recognition in the form of clients standing in queue?

Is it better to experience poverty and own a wish unmet than please yourself with presents “just because I want”? It absolutely does not matter that you will throw it away very soon after have been tired with playing. Don’t you really throw clothes away? And wives, and husbands? And cars? And houses? And companies? And how much does it differ to the toy you had been playing in your childhood? Buy yourself whatever you wish. Do you want Mazeratti? So, buy it. Go to Italy, let them teach you on a track and in a city conditions to “take out” from it everything it can do, let yourself drive it for at least a year down your country’s roads, and then decide whether this car is yours or not. Or, whether you wish Aston Martin or Lotus, or Bugatti, or Lambogini, or McLaren? Buy it. It is a fact you will not drive Mazeratti or Lotus to White House and to Vienna ball, too; there are different cars for official ceremonies and evening drives, they are different for hunt, for nature-based recreations and so on, and on, and on. Do you want them? Buy them, then. Do not save on you, and, what is more important, do not ignore yourself.

If you started to react to a crisis wave later than after a week, what are you hoping for? Trusting to luck? Is it like we have experienced several crises and we will survive this one anyhow. Nobody says, you won’t. You will survive, the only question is how much you lose. You might have done that having gained profits instead of losing. This is the price for question. A law reading as follows: God helps those who help themselves. God loves those who love but not feel sorry for themselves or give an easy time to themselves by way of indulgences for keeping to the routine, discipline, rule and non-compliance with the strictness of technological sequences. God takes care of those who take care of themselves.

But it is enough of sarcasm. Crisis waves are no laughing matter.

And now, please, extrapolate these characteristics of a plan prediction done, completeness and training level on your company, if you are an owner or a company managing director.

And now, extrapolate these characteristics of a plan prediction done, completeness and training level on your town or city, if you are a mayor.

And now, extrapolate these characteristics of a plan prediction done, completeness and training level on your field, if you are a minister.

And now, extrapolate these characteristics of a plan prediction done, completeness and training level on your country, if you are a head of government or a president.

How much time did it take to start to work? In your company. Your city. Your country.

At the time of the tsunami flood in the Pacific region, not a single man of the wild tribes, living on the islands, died. When they were asked how they had managed to do that, they said: “Shaman said we have to leave for mountains. Our tribal chief, after have been thinking for a while, gave the command to do that, so we stood up immediately, got our things, food, cattle together, took the elderly and children, and left for mountains. We came back to our land and huts in two weeks.”

So, who are savages after all that?

So, it is a problem, if we have a lot of shamans, plenty of leaders, and tremendous problems with discipline (because everyone thinks he is the most intelligent and knows what to do), therefore the “quasi civilized” always have more losses. Multiplicity is always ruining. Monosemanticity saves, makes one effective, rich and successful and joy of being.

Normal civilized people not only suffer no losses, but even gain profits either at normal time and time of trouble; but the “quasi civilized”, first, gush with greed and cupidity at normal time, and then, gush with loss at the time of trouble. Isn’t it happening around you today? (closing of March, year 2009). Once again, it is not the triumph of justice. It is the stubborn and inexorable succession of existed regularities. Everything just has its own time.

Once again, again and again: there are no miracles, but work, sense and disciplined obedience to the voice of own intuition and either in a context or tactical, or strategic aspect. One should wait to see which way the wind blows, think and act, then act, think and, again, wait to see which way the wind blows. And for how long? For how long you live. And what happens then? It is no concern of you, what happens then J. This play is not mine or yours. What important is that losses can be avoided by restricting yourself and thus setting yourself free of circumstances, at least of circumstances.

Reference:

“More than 60 % of all the crimes, registered in Russia, are detected being on hot on the trail. The time factors and operational work of local police stations become governing criteria. Experience shows: if a duty detail arrives to the place of a crime perpetrated within first 3-5 minutes, the probability of it to be detected is about 80 %, as for murders, it is up to 90 %. If the time, had been spent for getting to the place of a committed crime, rises to 10 minutes, rate of crime detection is more than 70 %, it is less than 20 % after 30 minutes had passed. But, in fact, only about 47 % of crime reports go to police after an hour and 25 % after twenty four hours have passed. According to statistics, if people report within first 10 minutes, probability of crime detection is more than 70 %; from 10 to 30 minutes - 50 %; beyond 30 minutes – up to 25 % and less”.

So, a crisis wave is a criminal while you are an officer of the criminal investigation department. O – f – f – i – c – e - r.

J It is slow on purpose. Would it be easier to apprehend it this way? J

Pantostructure effect “Centipede”.

Crisis wave will roll successively and cascadigly when one crisis wave will follow the previous one. Imagine a centipede that surmount an obstacle. The same stands for the world which will be bringing over the crisis barrier its each field one by one: stock market, banks, government finance, insurance, … And until the utter cleaning finishes into this specific field, the following field will be waiting in line to be cleaned by a next crisis line. What important is that natural diffusion of fields will be happening at the same time.

Effect of diffusion of fields is in the following: while a field is being into cleaning crisis procedure, its functions will be temporarily assumed by another economy field, in that way, the load on a field being transformed is compensated. But it must be clear that diffusion of fields is temporary; that is why to position your company for a wide range of goods and services is not much far-sighted, even if it has given an excellent economic effect within the near-term outlook.

Within the short period soon after a next field’s cleaning has happened, it must not be “loaded” immediately as it will be recovering very slowly but certainly, and it will be gathering strength almost sheerly on the closing stages of its recovery. That is why an impaired field should be “loaded” gradually and carefully, as for the part of limiting values of loading, but steadily and urgently. And it is very important not to let it get used to parasitize on neighboring fields – it should be loaded gradually but steadily. The aim of the field recovered is autonomy and helping hand to others, which have not been cleaned yet.

Pantostructure effect “Pregnancy”.

It is a very important pantostructure effect. Pregnancy effect is when millions of years of evolution are compacted into nine months of pregnancy, which are necessary for a healthy child to be born. An embryo in a mother’s womb goes through all phases of evolution on the earth and by the end of the period of child-bearing it gains the properties of a completed product of evolution towards the present moment of time. The same stands for society and economy. All the previous time is pressed within small moments, which are the parts of all the stages of successive reboot of fields and the entire world economy. For example, secondary education is being compacted unswervingly and constantly: things, used to be studied during the first years of university, are now studied during the last years at school. Alcoholism is becoming younger. Early maturation and early sexual life (which does not, by the way, have compulsory causing relation and compulsory succession, if society is developed) are reality by this time and they are making steady headway. Very early development of children’s capabilities is already fact of our current life. Everything is being compacted. The same stands for every field of economy. As soon as a next field has been cleaned by a next crisis wave, a recovering process starts immediately, which, by the time the field gets firmly established, somehow resembles the whole history of this history development, but being compacted and put into very short period of time.

Conclusion: each field will be going through all stages of its historical development during very short period of time, and, reasoning from this, all the symptoms, had been seen earlier, will be accompanying the field in a shortened form during the recovery period, either. And, now, let us explain this more specifically. Will exchange return? Yes, but not for a long time. Will there be wild outburst of organized crime? Yes, it will. But not for a long time. Will there be famine? Yes, there will be famine on some territories of individual countries. Will there be epidemics? Yes, they will. These crisis waves have already had epidemic nature. Will there be return to substitutes of payment? Yes, they will. But not for a long time. Will there be collapse of the world economy and reconsideration of principles of free trade? Yes. It will. “To be born, one must die”. But there is nothing what is tragic. There will be losses but they can be avoided. And it can be done, it must be done. There are not any reasons to suffer, one should work purposefully and sensibly.

Pantostructure effect “Stairs down”.

The cascade of crisis waves will have a characteristic feature of time. Time shoulder of each crisis wave: intensive, i.e. clearly contrasting phase will be going for 3 – 9 months (sometimes for a year and a half – two years, especially in closing crisis waves). In general, length of a wave will be increasing from wave to wave. That is time shoulder of waves will be steadily increasing from the first to the following.

Wave cycle: a) blow-shake; b) following tail of lasting consequences, c) fading of destructions; d) adaptation and stabilization; e) some improvement of situation; f) unpleasant lull accompanied with optimistic hopes for improvement; g) new blow-shake from next crisis wave.

So, the crisis will be cascading (wavy) like descending stairs. No matter how hard the descending is, it is better to descend hard than just fall to earth from height at a high speed. Again, any mountain-climber or a tourist can say that climbing is easier than descending. Remind yourself as a child: is it easier to climb a tree or to get down from it?

That is why every cycle (stage) of descending will have three characteristic phases:

a) fore-crisis symptoms;

b) crisis symptoms and manifestations in an intensive phase;

c) post-crisis symptoms.

Imagine, you are going down descending stairs blindfolded.

A) You are setting your leg and lifting it above the emptiness.

B) You are setting your leg down slowly and carefully until it contacts solid surface. You are examining the depth of a step down very carefully as you do not know the depth in advance.

C) You, having tested the support, are setting the weight of heaviness to this leg confidently and shift the other leg.

D) You are looking for the edge of a step by touch very carefully (completeness of stability) by the time you can touch uncertainty.

* A significant point: the number of stairs is not known in advance, that is why the time, when there will be no more stairs, will have come but slow touching of a horizontal area of space to take a step will still remain.

So, this descending process will be done with a period of one stair every 6-15 months.

If you want to find out the character of behavior of the world and national economy in the period of reboot, do the following. Get yourself blindfolded and ask somebody to take you to stars that have no banisters and side guard railings, unknown number of stairs, one flight down, then a flat plateau of unknown length, then a flight up and go along it being blindfolded. Then, open your eyes and do the same thing again, thus you feel the difference. So, this is what we are occupied with at this moment – pressing towards to giving at most close description of what will most likely happen.

1.1.2.2. Symptoms of the crisis in the world.

Further there are 9 pages of the detailed description of the symptoms of the crisis in the world that is available just for paying subscribers.

1.1.2.3. The crisis symptoms in a country.

Further there are 13 pages of the detailed description of the symptoms of the crisis in a country that is available just for paying subscribers.

1.1.2.3.4. Crisis symptoms and manifestations in a company.

Further there are 7 pages of the detailed description of the symptoms of the crisis in a company that is available just for paying subscribers.

1.1.2.5. Crisis symptoms in a person’s life.

1.1.2.5.1. Pre-crisis symptoms in a person’s life

Symptoms of a crisis wave has already begun but has not showed its worth clearly yet:

l Being in depressed temper, apathy.

l Feeling like a man out of mainstream. Loss of guiding lines for activity. It feels like the whole world is turning upside down.

l Fixed ideas.

l Feeling of growing stupidity. It seems that everything is simple but it is impossible to understand.

l Steep emotional slides: euphoria then fear, then euphoria again, and then fear again.

l Quite sharp increase of uncertainty of the future. As if you have lost control over things taking place. (By the way, ask yourself a question, when you are free to think: Have you ever had that control?)

l A chronic illness becomes more acute without any visible reason, all of a sudden.

l Inner dialogue suddenly becomes inner brawl of ego. Ego, all of a sudden, without any visible reason refuses to cooperate and gets locked inside itself, having felt hurt by the outer world and you in particular. Your ego took offence at you and refuses to cooperate with you.

Remember that ego is a good servant and a bad master. Ego obeys the voice of mind but it lays a claim on the whole person. Be careful. Ego is greedy beyond all measures and even in the case of asceticism it will be your ego that will lead you to the idea of contempt for money, because of its greediness to everything, including greediness for asceticism. Be careful. Ego is guileful, inexorable and tireless. Ego cannot be beaten. One may only reject it and get rid of it, forcing it work for him. This is what we call the way of mind triumph: professionalism, effectiveness, wealth, success.

Force it to work for you or it will force you to work for it. Power and aggressiveness are not needed here, but patience, support, kindness and perseverance will be enough. Treat ego like you treat yourself, i.e. like you treat your own child – with patience, love and exactingness. Treat it with love and it will treat you the same, but do not turn your back upon it. One cannot trust ego as there is no sense in it. Ego is guileful. Ego is a thief, and only attentiveness and regular control can save you from theft.

Ego is a traitor, absolutely unpunished one, brought up and cherished inside each man, it becomes his own traitor. But a traitor is not the bitterest enemy. A traitor is more refined and effective than the open bitterest enemy. A traitor can wait and stand but treachery knows no mercy. An enemy may pardon when a traitor never does that. Treason and ego are cruel executioners. One should not trust cruelty. A cruel one will definitely betray you one day. It an important notice for every man: any kind of pain been experienced or felt does not mean cruelty of its source. It is very likely just harshness. A road asphalt is harsh but it is not cruel – one should not have fallen J, i.e. to be sick with “asphalt disease”.

1.1.2.5.2. Crisis symptoms and manifestations in a person’s life.

Let’s start with control.

Task one – Control of all weak parts. “The chain is no stronger than its weakest”. All the most unprotected parts should be protected. For instance, neck, head and the sides of extremities (feet and hands) should be covered when it is cold – the rest will cope on its own. And one should also take the form of a baby, rolling oneself into a ball. The crisis is not the appropriate time for bravado and power demonstration. We should not waste power and money, spending it to no purpose on secondary things. The main thing is to reveal and strengthen (and it would be best if you fortify it with trained necessary reflexes) all your susceptibilities.

Task two – Control in the “fire” procedure. You should conduct regular teaching according to the civil defense procedure: for your family, company, city where you live. We will touch upon this question later in the methods of predicting.

Well, now about laying in supplies.

(this concerns the people working for a wage and people who spend more than a quarter of their monthly income on food for their families).

Please, make a list of all those products yours and your family’s dietary intake consists of. Then, mark among all those products the products you like and have accustomed to eating them but they are not produced in your country in appropriate for you quality. Then, every time you call at supermarket, start buying some superfluous quantity of the products you use for food regularly (the products are not produced in your country), if their shelf life is from two to five years. And start carefully making your own strategic supplies. Make those supplies on the basis of three years immediately ahead. This will be quite enough.

Try to lay in supplies every time you call at a supermarket. If you go to supermarket, buy something superfluous in store from the products that are not home-produced and have long-term shelf life. Buy them just a little but with a high extent of variety. Do not buy the whole boxes or bags. All the supplies have to be laid by the middle of this year’s August. Do not put off. This year’s autumn, a very severe crisis wave might begin; maybe even two of them, with the difference at start of about two months. The first is “bank” with the period of one year. And the second is “currency” with the period of three to five (maybe even seven) years. The starting point is approximately this year’s autumn.

Commentary.

There will not be a film-catastrophe with an apocalyptic scenario. Everything will happen tritely to boring and disgustingly to unpleasant astonishment. Everything will come fast and with inopportune unexpectedness. For example, hyperinflation – a country wakes up in the morning and finds the prices have been risen so high that the most part of population finds themselves below the poverty line. Another variant: suddenly, without any visible reason, pressure falls to zero in the backbone network of power, heat, gas and water supply. If you think it is an episode from a horror film, it is not so. In December, 2008 – January, 2009 this scenario has covered four European countries. It has not lasted for too long, just three weeks, and it was just gas, but sometimes even this can be sufficient to put out of action and destroy the system that had worked before.

It is important.

The crisis will bring all kinds of mental diseases and deviations to their acute condition. Sequence of burglaries, rapes, murders on private life basis, stealing, marauding and acts of unexplained violation will sweep across each country. It is interesting that most people, who will perform that, are quite normal in their everyday life, but at some moment they just “lose their mind”. These will be spontaneous surges of behavior uncontrolled. Such splashes appear and disappear very fast in a society. Draw your attention to your parents and children as they are the most unprotected. Once peaceful street or a district, all of a sudden, may turn into a center of violation for some time and, then, it becomes a stronghold of peace and stability again.

A street law says: Do not provoke or hold up yourself.

Explanation on how it works is needed here.

A friend of mine, a professional diver, after he had left army, while studying at a university, he has been working as a life-guard for about two years. So, he told that it was comparatively easy to get used to adults’ deaths, they are, 99 % of cases, mistakes, alcohol, overestimation of own abilities, bravado and foolhardiness, or all taken together. But it is very hard to get used to children’s deaths: they are not drunken, did not swam at great depths when cannot swim, and they behaved themselves quite normally, but still they died. So, he got a settled feeling that children, who had some kinds of problems in their families, died more often (sometimes cryptic problems).

So, what is the use of this story? If it is to die, death will take somebody anyhow, and it will take the most unprotected at this moment one. The one, that is the most unprotected on the beach at this moment, drowns, as death does not care who to take, it just fulfils the plan on the volume.

By the way, there is a very interesting fact about death’s character of behavior. At that very time, his colleague, who was a diver too, has been working with him there. So, that man had an animal scent for other people’s death. One or two minutes before a drowning, he came out to crinoline of the buoyant landing-stage and began staring in the direction of the beach, where a drowning was going to happen very soon. Then, he began yelling at everyone at the top of his voice and a shift on duty, knowing such his characteristic property, jumped immediately on a boat and, to the sound of alarm, left for the sector of that beach.

So, sometimes they managed to either prevent or save (it is called “to snatch away” before five minutes had passed, while brain cells have not begun to die off). They managed to save about thirty people this way.

Death just fulfils the plan, taking away the most unprotected one at this given moment. But this far not the only characteristic feature in death’s behavior. Death is many-sided and polyhedral, however, life itself is. But let us return to the heart of the matter. So, in a troop of antelopes, only the last running one dies, the one that a lioness managed to get out of the troop, caught up and tore to pieces.

The same thing we have with hijacking. If there is an order for a particular kind of a car, three or five crews go for a “patrol” at one time and they “shepherd” several potential clients simultaneously, and only after that they decide which to “break”. So, they “break” the one which appears to be the least troublesome. That’s it. They do not hijack the particular one but the one that is the easiest to be taken and would not cause troubles.

It is true, though, that sometimes there is an “order” for a particular car. If it is so, there are no chances. They set the goal to hijack and they do it. There are no chances. Professionalism is the direct projection of respect rate. If it is the order, there are no chances. You should not give up, but fight until the last cartridge, but chances are very miserable.

But. In usual, everyday life, there is the process of random distribution along the path of the least resistance. Demand looks for a breach for the own realization. It definitely finds it sooner or later. That is a psychic anomaly that becomes actual all of a sudden, suddenly changes a normal man into a threat to society, and, then, such a man attacks the one who is weaker that he is and is the most vulnerable of all right here and right now.

I have a favor to ask you, while everything is still all right, organize passive security measures around your family and people who are dear to you. It can be done calmly with no fuss, now. In this sense, an armored door and video surveillance systems and to close the “perimeter” and… and… and necessary skills of caution and sensible distrustfulness are absolute and unconditional good for the aged people and children. A body-guard cannot be appointed to look after everyone. The aged people and children need skills, own skills, they need them now, for it will be too late then. The aged people and children need unconditioned skills, led to reflexes, the rest, in a situation of danger, will be done for them by their instinct of self-preservation in cooperation with fear, which will inject the required portion of adrenalin into their blood and will organize the required mussels tone immediately in order to act according to the situation. And let’s hope such skills would never come in handy to you and your family.

But now, if they open the door to a stranger, strike them in the forehead, physically strike in the forehead, immediately. A human has brain parts behind the frontal lobes that are charged with his tendency. Do not speak but strike in the forehead, even if it is your aged mother in front of you. There is no blasphemy in it. Each man’s mother is a mammal (she has mammary glands) and she is a predator, too (she has canines in her mouth) and she is socialized (brought up in a human society) and this means she can and she is able to learn from pain if she does not understand words. This will save her life. This will save her life if something bad happens.

One more reminder, if they are displeased with you, it means you are right. It concerns your exactingness to them. If they are satisfied with you, it means you are right. It concerns your professionalism.

Exactingness always leads to advantage, pleasure always leads to satisfaction. Combine them and alternate them; your future will present you a lot of opportunities, then. Restrict advantage by pleasure, restrict pleasure by advantage and everything will happen in your life as it is planned in the most optimistic scenario for your genius and your talents. But let us return to the mother. Demand and cherish. Tender exactingness and exacting tenderness are the things you need in this case. Careful perseverance and persevering care.

But if you are so careful, hire a security guard and organize a post at your mother’s place. But remember that you would need another security guard in a month as your mother will demoralize him entirely and fatten him up to indecency (at least, this is what mothers do more often, when children send them somebody), however, the same thing happens to grandchildren. But, if you busy yourself with your mother guarding personally, you will suffer the same fate. Do you remember the joke: “How do grannies differ to terrorists? The answer: One can come to an agreement with a terrorist”. The moral: if a granny says it is time to have dinner, that’s it, game over, you are do claim stop time, push the button “Pause” and go to the kitchen obediently for the procedure of feeding. L What can we do? This is our life…

However, if you deal with your own mother’s security yourself and on your own, you will suffer this fate. Do you remember the joke: “How does the terrorist differ from your grandmother? The answer: It is possible to make a deal with the terrorist.” The moral: if a grandmother told to go and have a meal, that’s all, it is the end of the game, it is necessary to add stop time, press the button “pause” and submissively drag yourself along to take feeding procedure to the kitchen. L That’s the way the cookie crumbles. Life's like that.

A small conclusion: there is absolutely no blasphemy towards your mother in hitting her forehead. It is better that an own child hits her forehead than a person of unbalanced mind crazy from malice lashing him. Because a native child does this with love and without hurting, and what is the most important, persistently till a stable behavioral habit, act circumspectly and cautiously. And there is one more alternative it is ward guaranteeing, but then you will either sacrifice yourself or loose a special squad soldier, but these means of way security and on top of seven years it will spill over into pretty penny. That’s why it is the most reliable and simple way – to cultivate stable behavioral habits in your mother, of passive security measures. It was your mother that taught you not to open the door to the strangers. So it is your turn now.

But let’s pass from jokes to deeds. Though there is nothing to laugh at here. At present times (in February and March of 2009) those spontaneous surge of aggressing which have already lead to death of some people in small towns and outwardly normal families in USA and Germany are just the beginning. This tendency as if it tried itself, felt for weak places and got ready to go to the world stage. Be accurate. Burst of violence will be sharp in each territory of the Earth, but luckily not long.

The main rule: do not expose yourself and ask for. The street never punishes, it always teaches. Sometimes painfully. As well as all the nature does. The nature never punishes (there is no idea as justice for it), it teaches, as it is guided by reasonability and abide the law, straightening the equilibrium in cyclical organized processes, i.e. eliminates extreme points in limit deviations in cyclical transformational processes of transfiguration of every living and inanimate thing, i.e. in the processes of phase transition.

Let’s thou for a short time for the sake of clarity.

Especially it concerns children. Seat them next to you and read the following passage aloud (it was specially italicized)

Don’t walk alone in the evening. If you are attacked, run away and hide yourself or run to a crowded and lighted place and shout “fire”. If there is nowhere to run away and hide, face and hit first. Having reached the first positive result, run away again. Always watch your back positionally and at body contact watch your head and square up. At once. If you can’t win, pluck out the eyes of the attacker or hit the throat. Hit with anything that came to your hand. Break the window with your leg and take the glass in hand. A nail. A stick. A stone. A bottle. Hit with anything that came to your hand. Hit to injure, to injure hard, and if necessary to injure forever. If you are caught, tear out, scratch, bite and get to the neck and eyes. It is the most important to beat off to run away. Then take your father of the police officer and destroy the attacker. The attacker should be destroyed, being caught and rendered harmless. Let the Court decide his afterlife.

Children have different forces than adults attacking them and have considerably less chances that is why it is necessary to hit to ultimately injure, to gain time and run away. Allow you children to loose their school bag. Learn them to throw away their school bag at once when they are attacked. Cover themselves up with the school bags and throw them aside at once and run away. There are no chances for your child to escape from an adult with the bag in hand. The attacker is not a professional but he is an adult though. Teach this your children. It is not enough to explain, it is necessary to teach, train till the level of habit, to practice for second-nature. Take to the forest and train. Then take to the city and train again. Then take to the village and train again.

The scheme is simple: situation assessment, script and snap start of action. Do not talk – act at once. Do not seek children’s understanding, aim to their silent action. Words are nothing, actions are everything. All your olds and children should be taught these skills. Especially girls-teenagers and boys with not athletic body. Others should be pushed into the gym and let the coach make the best of them. People noticed long time ago that wrestlers and bowers fight in the street 99% less. It is a fact. May be because it is understandable out of their appearance that it is, to say the least, more difficult to bother them than other passers-by. What do you think? Or may be is it because they smell of training, courage, bravery?

And I wish you never need it. Hope for better, prepare for worse. Remember, a dog bites just a week person. A tiger does not attack face to face and a stronger one. Any beast of pray chose the weakest for the present as it obeys the law of following the line of the least resistance.

There cold be not more than 1-2 weeks of really uneasy times for your olds and children in your territory during the whole period of the crisis. There will be a bit bigger period in other countries from a month to half a year. And now let’s speak about details. In the street a real body contact lasts just 4 seconds, the rest are maneuvers and talks of all kind. If people are prepared the interaction in contact lengthens and lasts about 20-30 seconds, and if people are professionals it will take even more up to 2-3 minutes. So is 4 seconds worth wasting three months on regular training? Yes, if you don’t want to have a child emotionally traumatized for the rest of life, or may be broken and then adult that will bring up your grandchildren?

The same with you personally. Is it necessary for the sake of avoidance of one moment of infarct or insult to eat moderately and in a right way, regularly do diagnostics and go to the gym? Yes. It is necessary if you don’t want to become a cripple and invalid one nice day. Do diagnostics, nutrition and physical training make these illnesses impossible? No. But decrease the risk several times, especially according genetically and natural predispositions.

By the way, just for the interest sake, infarct and insult are cascade illnesses with the one-end vector. But the difference is that the illness has found its gap, one gap, so just one vector for the human attack and is hitting the same point till it finishes off the man of with cascade of consecutive infarcts or successive insults. The present crisis which, we remind, indeed is a scale structural restart, is not aiming to no matter finish off its ward. The crisis will cascade and sequentially reload separate branches (we will speak about sequence later). I.e. the crises will not hit one point, each time it will change the vector, point of application and scenario point of application from one wave to another. It is necessary to be watchful.

And now about those, who got into a crisis wave. A very important remark: the people who were beaten up by the way, the ability to perceive the surrounding world dramatically decreases: “the burnt child dreads the fire”. To ask opinion, share impressions and question about further plans such people means to strengthen negative consequences even more. In point of all other people around: “everyone imagines himself to be a strategist, watching the battle standing aside” Sh. Rustaveli.

Let’s examine this. Imagine a funeral. Grief happened in one’s family and suddenly people around them and relatives start gathering in such a house. Why all of sudden? Grief as well as happiness is a state of a soul and it is infectious through a droplet way, having sat for a while and that’s all, and it's history, he has caught the infection. So what is the sense to deliberately and on own volition get into the infected house? It provided to be necessary. For population to survive. It is necessary for the nature. Traditions of people, it is right.

Thus, family and friends start to come to the house of the deceased. Indeed, with their presence they dramatically worsen the state of affairs, because they act extremely unprofessionally from the point of the fact of occurred event. But. But it is even very good. The nature hid a very important mechanism in this amateurishness. Everybody knows that after funeral people lost their close person stay alone with themselves and their feelings. That is why, It is necessary for a lot of people to come in the period of grief. What for?

a) With their presence and stupid pity they provoke a sharp growth and experiences, hastening the process of awareness. Coming to the house of the deceased relatives and colleagues with their unskillful actions bring the feeling of grief to grotesque of social ritual and lance inner abscess. It is the same as warming for the abscess – this accelerates the process of unexpected deliverance.

b) With their presence they refocus the attention of people, experiencing grief, and with this they distract they from sorrowful thoughts and soul-searching, which is very good.

c) Help to get rid of things left after the deceased: money, valuables, books, … and by means of this they decrease groaning of conscience for supposedly quick forgetting about the deceased. The memory will not pass away, don’t worry, “the body remembers”, but it is really necessary to get rid of the things reminding about his presence, in that period, which is provide by traditions of your people (often after 40 days).

There is one more important moment, this process of withdrawal of the person out of emotional stupor must have catalyzing stimulus. Earlier there was such a position at the church as weepers. keening and weeping at funeral were part of their duties. People say: “Cry, you will feel better” – so to cry it is necessary that it bursts, and if it is hidden inside, this can transform into a chronic form of depression, in the process of supplanting of ill experiences. It is this that weepers are needed for, to give birth to a chain reaction, delivering relatives of the deceased from the pain of loss.

The same is with children. To provoke deliverance from waste products, sometimes children sitting on the pot have to groan to empty their stomach. An outward catalyzing influence is necessary.

Thus, in the same they people survived the crisis wave and it is impossible for them to adequately perceive the reality. In their projection this reality is highly deformed by the fact of suffered losses, experienced pain and deprivation of illusions. In such a period people are disoriented, apathetic and absorbed in themselves. It is not necessary for them to be asked, they should be controlled.

For example, a person met an accident and wasn’t hurt a lot, neither he nor his car. You come, take him out of the wheel and take the car to the garage or service at once. Let him sit near and silently watch what is going on. And when he gets over the adrenalin attack destroying him then you can give him his car and let him drive himself. By the way, adrenalin disintegrates very well either under muscles activity influence (psychic stress is knocked out by muscle one – into the gym and work to a frenzy) or under the alcoholic influence. Simple sedative medicine will just make him deferred. Adrenalin is kicked out of the blood by any kind of activity or alcoholic blockade.

The conclusion: do you want to help? Command and give orders, bit in an ethic and friendly manner. People having experienced stress out of the crisis wave for the first time resemble confused children in something very much: abrupt short-term reduction of intellect and attention concentration. Disinhibition and return to functioning don’t come at once, not at one moment - so hold your breath.

1.1.2.5.3. Postcrisis symptoms in the person’s life

Let us suppose that people close to your heart got under action of the next crisis wave. Remember, please, general structure effect: “The speed of the reaction”. we have already examined it above, almost at the beginning. (A tip: have a look above).

For all that, we will repeat a few extracts from the written above to refresh it in your memory.

As 95% all the same have not done this, i.e. have not come back to the beginning of the text, oh this human’s laziness even on the threshold of the crisis waves (it is pronounced with old age groaning, tragedy and deep sorrow J oh, oh, oh … in our times… even water was wetter…)

(all repeated fragments of the text are specially italicized for convenience)

In the period of flood out of tsunami in Pacific region – not a man died among wild tribes living on the islands. When people started asking them how they reached this they answered: “Shaman said that we must go to the mountains. And our leader had been thinking during a day and in the morning he told us to do this, and we stood up at once, took belongings, food, animals, the old and children and went to the mountains. And in 2 weeks we came back to our land into our huts”.

And who is barbarian of us? We or they?

Imagine that the next turn of crisis development is a crime. Thus, possibility of solving the crime greatly decreases firstly after first hour, then after first four hours, then after a day, then after first week, then a process becomes self-flowing and we get a “cock of the wood”.

So, the time of reaction to a next crisis wave and Your successfulness.

So, the crisis wave is a criminal and you are an agent. A-G-E-N-T.

Slowly for the purpose, may be it will be easier to apprehend? J

And then we will start.

First second – there is no losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first second.

-          Call them immediately, as you get the information about the event.

-          People are still in impeded state and it is still possible to have time to adequately talk to them.

-          Take the entire picture from the first source. Make them retell what happened to them 3-7 times (as if at examination), because all the time new details will come out. Concentrate the attention on the details and small things you are interested in asking questions.

-          Let the injured people speak as much as they want. If it is necessary let them display emotions overwhelming them. Let them swear. Cry. Rail. Shout. Even shout at you. Everything you wish. This emotional splash is very important.

First minute = 5% of the general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first second.

-          Stabilization of aggrieved people from the crisis wave with all available ways. All available means to stabilize the state of aggrieved people from the crisis wave.

-          Do not give money to the aggrieved into their hands but give money to the ingressives into these families, or companies, or branch, to structural project managers and local professionals.

First hour = 30% of general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first hour.

-          Evacuation. With maximum speed relocate the people in the space from the region of crisis manifestations (the place of events that took place) to the region which the aggrieved consider being safe and what is the most important cozy. Let them decide where they should be taken themselves. You are just a transport company dealing with the movement of their bodies in the space.

-          It is necessary to dramatically remove this feeling of pressure from the person as if the world pressurized him. This feeling of pressure is necessary to be removed with the procedure of evacuation. The feeling that world pressurizes them does really exist. But it is they that have this feeling. Indeed the world does not pressurize anybody, it is just the way the process of illusions destruction is felt and experienced.

-          Do not talk to people wisely. Do not talk to them using slang. Speak in a simple and accessible way. Using short, simple, monosyllabic sentences. Express yourself with them without verbal laces and ruches, so that knightage and esthetics of the communication will not be disturbed by inappropriate patter, gabble or argot. For example, “Sir, would you be so kind and go to blazes!”. The simpler the better. For example, “it is not necessary” and that’s all. Simpler, simpler and one more time simpler. Shortly, simply and understandably.

-          By the way, if it is necessary use drawing of different schemes and active gesticulation. This is helpful. The point is that vocal centre is overloaded in this period and “files are not available”. Any perception, i.e. entrance of speech inside, and its withdrawal can be temporary awkward. Sensation from the intellect workload is as if the brain burnt.

-          We are reminding for the second time, Do not give money to the aggrieved into their hands but give money to the ingressives into these families, or companies, or branch, to structural project managers and local professionals.

First day = 75% of general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first day.

-                      Turn the simplicity of cooperation to the primitivism, to the level of childhood age. Treat as a child but do not use baby talk. For example, if you have ever signed bank documents in a distance, places for your signature were beforehand specially marked with contrast ticks for you in the documents. As for primitive people? Yes. This is the way how everything should be.

-                      In this period the inhibition of reaction towards all the external irritants will take place. Functions of perception, concentration and memory are deliberately decreasing.

-                      A very important moment is to remove everything excess. Everything that hampers movements towards effectiveness must be removed or it will be broken and swept off the way of reasonability and necessity. Clearing of life territory from everything excess, all the obstacles, everything extraneous aspects. For example, at a friend’s we held a demonstrative model clearing and from a small 5-room office a transportation service took away 2 KAMAZes of office rubbish. We didn’t touch the furniture. J Oh my God! After this, inspired with the received result he did the same in his house but this time alone. The result: children were crying all day long, his wife was grumbling during a week, mother-in-law was not talking to him for a month because of the thrown away “treasury, made by hard work”. Remember the words of famous Vladimir Etush in a genius film “Ivan Vasilievich changes the occupation”. He is sitting on the stairway enclosure and rhetorically talking to a patrol dog: “All the made fortune by means of hard work, everything made…” If mother-in-law could, she would strangle this bastard, her son-in-law, but her daughter’s happiness …, and again her grandchildren would be left without their father… But there are enough jokes already.

-                      It is obligatory to be on a “diet of moderation in everything” in a disciplined way: in food, in everyday life, in contacts, in work, in rest. In everything. The main criterion, for example, of food is satiation, vitality and the main condition is to keep lightness. What else to eat to keep this feeling of lightness inside. To remove, cut off all TV-programs and all surrounding information contour, but to leave films at his discretion, taking away erotic L and horror filmsJ.

-          We are reminding third time: Do not give money to the aggrieved into their hands but give money to the ingressives into these families, or companies, or branch, to structural project managers and local professionals.

First week = 95% of general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first week.

-                            To hire a postcrisis manager for coordination of necessary efforts.

-                            It is necessary to hire a manager, because the matter is in the following. Some crisis waves will not necessarily attack at a single-stage rate. Some of them will be in an active phase for a period from a week to even a month. It is not a storm for an hour, and then everything further is sunny and light. It can be a season of tropical rains with duration up to a month, or even sometimes more.

-                            Dramatically and without ceremonies send away all gawkers and counselors passing by. The attitude towards them should be as for example: “Do not take captives. Who left himself – saved himself, who didn’t leave – shooting at once, according to the military laws. Annihilate one or two and others will scatter, taking their advice with them”. The matter is that during the first week a person is widely opened to injury, that’s why he is sensitive and responsive to the limit in this period. The wounds in his soul have not been heeled and it is easy to infect him from without at this time. Having spoken over the phone (a mobile phone) and that’s it, it's as good as lost. Such deliberate isolation of him from communication with unnecessary people created by you exists for this purpose, something like a communicative reanimation department organized by you. First, there will appear a film, healing the wound, in his soul, then a keratinized covering, and then everything will be covered with protecting skin, scars, cicatrices and other kinds of colloid tissue up to the formation of a corn. Then you may liberate him and let him choose who he wants communicate with, and those he does not want to.

-                            The same with finances of the injured. Put a strict ban on all expenditures aside. Let money get in but not out. All investments should be frozen and left in suspense. Since this moment all money moves around the injured just in the case you give permission to and directly under your control. Take yourself all money, for the time being and do not report to anybody according it. After three months pass and with full restoration of the injured give all the money back, keeping 2% of all saved just in this period and earned in the same period money. Do not apply for the position of investment manager under any circumstances in the future if you have worked well and successfully and you are willing to work a little bit more. Moor made a clean job of it, Moor has to take himself off.

-                Entering his rights, the injured from the crisis wave in part of his recoverable functionality should be always guided along the path of least effort, from simple to complex, from the particular to the general, from easy to difficult. And do not let old foxes and other accidental people approach to him, just checked and trusted.

-                If you are making a plan with the injured – make him sign everything aimed and afterwards fulfill it point by point. Obligation from your side and discipline from his are the guarantee of success and absolute good. There is no need to mention regular and cyclic control, this is on default.

-                The property not returning interest means excess concerns. Aggravation and inertness are the main enemies. Make all their assets work for the sake of the injured. Though small income but it is income at last. Assets not creating debts should be left and laid up. Everything burdening should be got rid by means of localization of expenditures, i.e. diving into economical anabiosis.

-                We are reminding forth time: Do not give money to the aggrieved into their hands (matches are not a toy for children) but give money to the ingressives into these families, or companies, or branch, to structural project managers and local professionals.

-                It is obligatory for the injured to regularly work physically. Move. Move. Move. Increasing workload in a very careful and spare way. Nothing should stand too long. Everything should move. Shake in order to awaken and make move, as if a person were falling asleep freezing out of cold. But this time it is a form of psychological falling asleep, i.e. falling into before-depression state. It is easier not to let happen, than to scratch him out of this and then take to the God’s light. Have you ever tried to take a crawfish out of the shell? This is almost the same, almost hopeless occupation. It is better not to let fall into inhibited state of psychic, then to warm out in sun (with kindness, love, care and patience) to make him go out of this himself.

-                To praise the injured for all made efforts without assistance and especially for persistence and diligence. And to praise twice for achieved results. Not to give an opportunity to overwork. It is more necessary for them to rest than to work. First time you should talk only about everything good and keep silence about bad things. Keep silence for a while.

First month = 97% of general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave during the first month.

-          The same as during the first week, plus

-          For influence on separate spheres of the lie of the injured it is necessary to hire profile specialists. All the injured should be surrounded with detached people, subject professionals according to their major specialization.

-          Less injured members of the family should undertake part of duties that were fulfilled by the injured earlier, and according the obligations and safety and reliability for the whole family. To hold together, helping each other is very right. The income will be restored, without fail. It is necessary just to help the injured to “lick his wounds” and “keep his bed”, “cumulate the disarrayed and broken warrior”, feed, give to drink, let sleep and push him into the street, sending back to the fight. A warrior dies with his arm in his hands, a poet dies with his poems on his lips, a composer dies while creating music, an artist dies on the stage, and an investor dies caring about the assets. It is right. It is necessary to work till the end. While your mind let you do so, your body and you have a taste for life. One must work while he is alive. The criterion: If you don’t want to work, this means that you are doing something wrong. But if you were caught up by insolent happiness and you are working not because you want to, but because you can’t help working, it is more than you, you can’t resist it, thus, you are lucky, welcome to the galleys. This is the same as breathing, you can’t help doing this. If this has already happened to you – Happy birthday!

-          Less injured members of this family should undertake concern for more injured. Concern for your close people is very important. Give a lead by means of your own example, your patience, show them what active kindness, patience, as it is, patient attention, persistence and care mean. When someone loses his job or the crisis wave kills the only company he has for this time, it is painful but it is not a tragedy, and more by token it is not a life fiasco. Everybody experienced temporary difficulties, even the most successful people on the earth. “There is no victory without defeat” Romanov, Sapunov, the bang “Voskresenie”.

-          Remember the injured by the crisis wave can experience despondency, submergence into their thoughts and sometimes even tearfulness. Nothing terrible, let him cry, then he will pee less.

-          Praise for any manifestation of self-determination. Rest and work are necessary for injured in equal parts now. Do not hurry them in the part of achieving the result and transition to the complete autonomy. Everything will come in due time. The restoration shifts in time to the last phases of the term. I.e. restoration forces turn on like a snowball in the middle of the term between first and third months after the crisis wave hit.

-          Undertake just coordination with earlier hired coordinator.

First quarter = 99% of general possible volume of losses.

What to undertake according the people close to your heart at once after the crisis wave on the first after crisis quarter.

-          The same as in the first month plus

-          The injured from the crisis wave should be taken for the rest to the forest, river, lake but in the own country for a week, or two.

-          Conversation. Conversation. Conversation. There will be mood drops. Be ready for this. It is necessary to talk on abstractive topics and on purpose ones. Talk about everything and slightly. It is obligatory to talk on serious topics from time to time.

-          Praise for any display of autonomism and independence from you. It is already more necessary for them to work than to rest now.

-          Start to prepare for a new crisis wave at once. Each crisis wave always comes unexpectedly. It always takes by surprise. That is why confusion and the following passiveness connected with it destroy the most.

-          Tails of the previous crisis wave in the shape of “behavioral scarves” in the behavior of the injured from the crisis wave will be read in a year and in two years – “body remembers”, but they will not have considerable influence any more.

And if you got under the crisis wave yourself? Nothing terrible. Do not panic. What happened already happened. What is, already is, and this is how it must be (as according to fact it already exists). And the current has a great deal of reasons but just one source. The source, where you, I, all people on the Erath and all the world come originally from. And the God is guilty of this J, as allowed this to happen to you J.

That is why priorities for yourself personally:

1. Inexorable yearning for achieving the desired result and get out of the position of a victim;

2. Active attitude to the life. Active does not obligatory mean busy. Sometimes it is necessary just to observe. And sometimes to hire profile executives;

3. The versatility of vital interests and and nothing too much.

“victor heal wounds quiclier”

Recommendation.

The best investment in the period after each crisis wave:

1. Professionalism, resulting in increase of quantity of the orders.

2. Effectiveness and profitability of your business. Speed and accuracy of execution of orders of the clients.

3. Education, resulting in professionalism growth. effective and subject knowledge. Nothing, what is interesting, just what is useful. But sometimes it happens that the interest answers for those being invisibly useful J.

4. A house, safe and autonomic: water, food, heating (this point will be very urgent for some territories of the world)

5. Land, cows, goats, sheep, pigs, poultry, garden, vegetable garden, greenhouse (this point will be very urgent for some territories of the world)

6. Children, family.

7. motherhood.

Although you know that this matrix of priorities is so effective not just in the crisis times but in calm times also.

1.1.2.6. The conclusion.

And again, and again, and again, we will find by feeling the bottom, plateau of falling when the tendency of economics slowdown stops for a rather long period, a year or a year and a half, and outlines of the new world order appear, the conflicts end, including armed ones and a feeling and readiness for new crisis waves spring up. As soon as we gain a stable skill of war against the crisis waves, at the same moment, according to the law of malignance, the crisis will wither and run out.

And again, and again, and again, you should not relax, even if the tendency to restoration keeps for more than six months – this still is not a term, indicating the beginning of restoration, there are still a lot of specific conditions, which will point at the world economics readiness for the restoration. That is why, no euphoria, “sometimes one amuses you to tear your gold teeth out of your mouth” (film “Revolver” by Gay Richey. Do not trust small improvements; this crisis is a very insidious thing. Thus, we are to make sure about this.

And money again. Just taking the ferry is free of charge, and this is not your debts and your concern. Everything on the Earth must be paid for. It is impossible to get out of the crisis waves free of charge; you will have to pay with money, time, and work. You can’t do this without the help of local specialists. Start creating the fund of incidental expenses, otherwise you will review the budget more often than forestall the aftermath of another crisis wave. It is better to earn less than loose more.

“Inability to say “no” brings to such a quantity of children, friends and colleagues

that it is the doctor who can can set free you or them”.

M.M. Schvaneckiy

“Three pigs”

Remember, please, the plot of a fairy tale about three pigs.

One of them built a house of straw, and spent all other summer time enjoyed himself as much as he wanted. The second built a house of brushwood and could spend even autumn well and first light frosts, and the third worked hard all the autumn and summer not to turn a hair and built a stone house. He built his house with manic persistence even when: a) nothing was of ill omen; and b) he was laughing at by his two brothers. But he knew something. His intuition said him that he must have built a stone house and he listened to it, at the same time the whole society called him a stupid man, by the way, from his referent group lips, which he was connected with not just by joint experience of socialization, but also by blood bounds. But first the autumn came, and then the winter came. And then when the hunger sharpened all the processes, having canceled the arrangements, a wolf appeared. The wolf just wanted to eat and had nothing personal according the pigs. The wolf is crisis manifestations, cascade crisis waves.

The moral. It is what should be learnt from the third pig. A) He let to his house those who have laughed at him. Though they are stupid, they are brothers after all. There is no forgiveness in this, it should be understood. There is no sense in forgiving the stupid, they should be taught, taught by means of pain and hardship and just in the case if there is much to gain from it for you, for it is useless and unreasonable to waste your time on them otherwise. B) He allowed them to enter his house not out of pity for them but to save his own house from the furious attacks of the wolf (the crisis waves). It is more safe, reliable and convenient to hold the line together.

Hereon it is the end of the story. It is over for the children but it goes on for adults. As soon as the wolf attacks (the crisis waves) were overcome and the peace started to reign – here the third pig should be wise and consistent and turn the both brothers out of the house; otherwise the variant of dependence will be provided for him till the end of his life.

And now let’s have a look into your future. Imagine yourself, that the crisis waves of the first three years and social conflict waves (liberal and military conflict) of the following after them four years finished and your country, your business and your family did not suffer or suffered insignificantly. This means that you are this third farsighted and wise pig.

And now:

A) Speaking about your country: if you helped any country on the continental level of the world to overcome the crisis waves, attach it to you as a small colony, but do not let it parasitize (continuing to credit and subsidize), as it was in the tomes of the crisis worsening. It is necessary to drive the country you helped during these seven years home for sure, having made it pay you during a lot of decades forth. It is necessary to teach negligent and short-sighted governors of such countries by means of money, work and directing (for their short-sight) them to fitting place in your hierarchy.

B) According to your company: if you helped any company to overcome the crisis waves, take the control packet of shares and change all the top management having lead the company to this crisis situation at once ad locum and make other owners the minorities without the right to vote (without the right of taking part in making decisions), but with the right of deliberative vote. After the end of the crisis waves, revaluate the company and get rid of it selling it as expensive as possible.

Sell it as expensive as possible for you and for your minors, it is the best care about them. Let them start all over again to understand that life is not a draft, clients are not a training apparatus.

A small note: life is not a draft, clients are not a training apparatus. Life is not a draft, the time for rewriting is not provided. A human being is a mistakable creature, be definition. There are no unmistakable people, but there are a lot of those who do not try, who are not eager, who are jealous and envious and lazy. The one who forgives is forgiven. The one who forgives himself is forgiven. The one who forgives himself by himself is forgiven. This is what the rise is started with. If you forgive your success and your wealth to yourself, the others, having followed your example, will either forgive you your greatness, your consequence, your effectiveness and your success, your education and good manners and your modesty. Everything is started at yourself.

It ends there either, though J. Can it be possible that there was always nobody but you? J It needs further consideration!

C) Concerning your family: if you have helped your relatives to meet the crisis waves, excuse them all their debts, every single one, then, get rid of careless and foolish relatives, expel them from your house in order to prevent them from claiming to your attention and your time. They had become poor in spirit before the crisis, they, now, have to back home, they have to return to the point they had started with and they have to build their, their own, stone house with their own unabated perseverance, little by little getting out of the own spirit and economic poverty. They have been saving themselves when they were saving your house from the pressure of the crisis waves; it is your turn now, this time save yourself from them, throwing them on the street, but do it at peace times.

If they have no brains (irrefutable facts of proofness of their economy, industrial, cultural, educational and financial houses are evidence of this at the level of the state), let them start from nothing. Such is the law: you make a mistake, you go to the starting line. How long? As long as you pass the examination for maturity to be free and maturity to restrict yourself with norm deliberately, and to assume responsibility for the own life and own deeds, their results, with no fear of mistakes and blame. As long as you pass the examination for maturity and accomplish all the tasks of this level of complexity. It is like a children’s game, when as long as pass the level, a game does not let you go further. Well, what is childish in it? This is how Sufism (post religious trend of Islam, if you feel comfortable, beyond-the-religious trend of Islam) and Zen-Buddhism (post religious trend of Buddhism) are build this way. Until you pass the examination of this level, you are not led to the next one. How long? Until you pass the examination. You may lay your claims and stand in front of the gates of wisdom till the rest of your life, if you like. It is not forbidden to be a beginner all one’s life. It is harmful, though. It is fact.

The life of people who are “beginners all their life” looks like this: “I want to live better, but to work for that or, Lord forbid!, to change something in my life – no way, it would be better if everything stays as it is. Either they come and give all that to me, or I do not need anything, but to exert and take a firm stand is too great honor for them!”. Leave the poor in spirit and brains alone. Their life is their conscious choice.

Keep aside of such people. Spirit and brains poverty is, like tuberculosis, plague, cholera, chicken pox, communicated in respiratory way. Brains and spirit poverty is a psychic virus, so, viruses have no bounds, any human is fertile soil to them. After being beside such a person for a while, say goodbye to him forever.

So, let us suppose that the first seven the most transformational years have come to the end – congratulations.

A) If you have survived and the crisis has not affected you much, it means that you have a good reaction and you are open to the world (you respond to pain and pleasure – it says you are sensitive, but, still, you do not draw the correct conclusions)

B) If during the period of the first crisis years you have got a profit, it says you are intelligent.

C) If you have saved yourself, increased your income and helped the others, it says you are wise.

Still, it is too early to relax. The crisis waves will have lost their clearness and pass to the area of unclear transformational changes after the first seven years. The transformation has not been completed yet, it will be lasting for years but it will become less clearly visible. Everyday life will calm and settle. The rest will start increasing, there will be inner split, but things are going to be quite digestible at the level of everyday life and structure-state level.

A small lyrical digression:

Life is a space where one may make mistakes. May!!!

You cannot sin as you just do not know everything. Sin is not in a deed, it is in an intention. All the mistakes are made in mind first, and only then these mistakes are, when one has enough of good sense, realized at our own eyes, gaining their personified flesh. The sin is dejection, aversion of oneself, ignoring oneself and the others. But there is not a sin even at this moment. A human is a creature that cannot not to make mistakes as it presses towards something and tries, tries again, makes a mistake, corrects its activity and presses towards something again. Thirst for unquenched desires forces to make mistakes, but there are no achievements without trials and mistakes.

Until there is desire, there are mistakes. As long as desires exist, mistakes will exist either. Primordially, any activity brings a kernel of fallacy in it, i.e. posterization (until commonality and differences are revealed separately each one, i.e. generalization until the moment when rules appear, and from the moment, when the rules appear, conflicting and confirming exceptions are revealed), i.e. probability. This is the source of mistakes: “the world is cognizable but is not cognized”. Until a probability exists, a mistake exists either. But this is the chance. Because, as long as probability exists, a fan of possible scenarios exists. A mistake is always a chance. That is why any activity harbors primordially both a chance for success and probability of failure. But you can if you want, of course.

Unmistakable people do not exist. The same thing is with Lord. He is mighty but he is not unmistakable.

It is not terrible to stumble but to remain lying is much more terrific.

Have you fallen? Get up. Fell again. Get up again. How long? As long as you live. The rest is not your business.

If you tried but did not do well, it is not that bad. We will try again, again and again. Until we result, until it results. We will think, reflect, change approaches and try again. Until we get the result. Steady, stable, replicas able result.

But.

But if you do not try, do not press towards your aim, you have a war where no captives are taken, then. Remember that a flock of sheep is not in captive, it is just such a form of existence. Sheep are shepherded, and they want it so. They pay for their own safety in their being not free. You would better decide for yourself who you are: a lion or a sheep. Then act according to your answer to this question. Being a sheep is always free-will thralldom. Still nobody has guaranteed safety to a lion. Either you choose success or go to a stall. Either you choose success (i.e. drudgery) in the area of your own most natural predisposition, or you will be ordered about forever. Either they respect you and cooperate with you, or you are possessed and ordered. What is your choice?

Dejection is bad, very bad. Boorishness in the form of ignoring under the cover of “oops, I did not know” “oops, I did not understand” “Oh, I thought that…” – is not suitable. One can deceive only himself.

You should treat people and deal with people the way you would want them to treat you and deal with you. Do to people … and this is what they will definitely do to you.

You may get tired, you may get disappointed, but you must not stop trying. You have entered this world against your will, you will leave it against your will either. This play is not yours. Play your part with enthusiasm if you lay claims on money compensation and audience applause. “Either it is apatite or dung, it is all one to earth” V.Vysotsky. Is it all one to you? What did I tell you!

As long as you feel pain, you are alive. As long as you feel pleasure, it is not all to you, no matter how much depressed and apathetic you feel. There were not indifferent people in a concentration camp as pain gives not the ghost of a chance to indifference. A person may be broken and crushed but he will not stay indifferent as long as he has a soul and a body that responds to stimulus of pain and pleasure.

Laws of nature are established the way that the world does not remember the past – it is strange but true. Information about everyone and everything is kept. But. But the world does not remember the past, if it is not carried back by repetition of mistakes J. Conclusion: a cause-effect relation can be broken off, and this is a chance. Your chance. One can go out a vicious circle. One can tear himself away from it. A lot of people were able to do that. It means you can do that either, if you would want to, of course.

They did not surpass you in anything. They had two arms, two legs and one head, either.

A mistake has been made, it is not terrific. Forget it. Pass it by. You have no time to look aside. Go on.

Not to achieve a result – this is the problem. The rest is removable.

There is a joke apropos of this.

Albert Einstein dies and gets into purgatory and Saint Peter says to him: “For your services, the Most High lets you ask Him a question you would like to”. He shows Einstein to the Most High. Einstein asks the Most High: “The Most High, I have put my life in finding out the formula of Universe, but I have failed to know it” “Such a trifle? – the Most High wonders – Is that the only question? Well, let it be as you want”. He starts writing the formula in the air. There is no time. There is no space. He has been writing for a long time. For a very long time. At last, he finishes and, turning his face to Einstein, says: “Here. This is the formula of Universe”. Einstein is looking at this formula for a long, long time, scrutinizing it and following the line after line, then, finally, when he has finished, he says: “The Most High! You have a mistake here!”- pointing at a small part of the formula in the middle of the text. “I know” – says the Most High, smiling kindly.

The main idea: If there are no mistakes, there is no development. If there are no mistakes, there is no betterment, i.e. there will be no change from the better to the best.

“Oh, how many marvelous discovers,

The spirit of enlightenment is preparing for us!

Experience, the son of hard mistakes,

And genius, a friend of paradox,

And chance, a god for inventors”

A.S.Pushkin

Draw your attention to the fact that in a famous television program just the closing strophe of the poem has been removed knowingly.

J Some non-genius decided to sub-correct the genius, all of a sudden. He has just redoubled attention to this very closing line with his deed. The principle of focusing on mirror image has worked: the thing you want to hide the most, this thing draws one’s attention the most.

The same principle works in the interaction with the evil and in the interaction with the good. One should not fight against the evil as this fighting just strengthens the evil, training it and making it more flexible. The same thing is with the good, the more good you do, the more evil is born, - it happens automatically only to help the world maintain equilibrium. This is how the principle of mirror focusing, or addition to the equilibrium state, works.

Returning to mistakes.

You should believe no one. The author of these lines may be mistaken as for prediction. You may even the right prediction interpret in the wrong way or understand it incorrectly. A mistake is possible. Even in view of subjective prism of each person’s perception. But. But the only one who does not correct mistakes is stupid, but the one who does not try to achieve is stupid twice.

(as regards the matter that one should believe no one – a bit later about that)

One more notice concerning the crisis.

The crisis is flu. Flu is nine days of bed rest, you would kill yourself, if you like, but nine days are wanted here and now. The whole point is that the sooner you start preventing, the less you would lose. Anyway, you are going to be sick for nine days, but in one case you will be flat on your back, in another case you will have it in non-drug and non-temperature form. What is most important, one should go out of flu carefully, gradually and cautiously as early stopping of rest cure threatens with further complications on liver, kidneys, vision, ear, and also threatens with chronic diseases to begin. It is impossible to cut down the term, it is almost like pregnancy, but it is possible to ease the illness behavior.

This book is not prognostic - it is important. Matters described here contain no prediction. In the description we refer to existent facts of reality only, have already been existing. You will have to build the prognosis on your own, your own prognosis: for your country, for your company, for you personally. There is nothing to worry about yet, we will provide you with all necessary methods of prognostication, but a bit later about them. We still have time for that.

Recommendation number one.

The crisis will free a lot of spare time and you will have to spend it wisely and thoughtfully. There are two basic variants: a) extra income from a new promising activity; b) not high-budget hobby that influences health and mood positively. Choose what you like the most.

For a smile and on business concerning your choice:

Among presidents, one should choose the merry ones.

Among the merry ones choose intelligent.

Among intelligent choose firm.

Among firm choose decent.

Among writers one should choose the merry ones.

Among the merry ones choose talented.

Among talented choose intelligent.

Among intelligent choose brief.

Among friends one should choose the merry ones.

Among the merry ones choose faithful.

Among faithful choose intelligent.

Among intelligent choose honest.

And long-living.

Among wives one should choose the merry ones.

Among the merry ones choose intelligent.

Among intelligent choose affectionate.

Among affectionate choose faithful.

And patient!

M.M.Zhvanetsky

And now let us reveal terminologically absolutely genius text by an awfully talented person. And doing this, unlike him, we are not going to be brief J, but we are going to be sequentially and persistently systematic.

• Merry is for inactively kind, it is the projection of childlike, ingenuous perception and wise attitude.

• Intelligent is for rich.

• Firm is for pitilessly soft and implacably exacting.

• Decent is for highly moral, absolutely unethical, well-brought up and civilized.

• Talented is for hardworking.

• Brief is for genius.

• Faithful is for simple, accessible and reliable. Faithful is consistent.

• Honest is for stable in his beliefs, especially in values.

• Affectionate is for attentive and invisibly careful.

• Patient is for attentive, timely aspiring, consistent, gradual, stable, implacably and kindly persistent.

And, now, reread this creation, replacing the terms with their semantic meanings. Believe me, it turns out to be very interesting.

President: a) he has ingenuous perception like a child and he has wise attitude; b) rich (desirably in second generation, but it is all right if it is first, on condition that he is honest to himself (see the meaning of the term honest); c) implacably exacting and kindly persistent until the feeling of absolute steadfastness in his aspiration for achieving result; d) highly moral, absolutely unethical, shameless, sufficiently unprincipled, well-brought-up and civilized.

Writer: a) has ingenuous perception like a child and he has wise attitude; b) maniacally hardworking; c) rich; d) genius.

Friend: a) he has ingenuous perception like a child and he has wise attitude; b) consistent; c) rich; d) value-stable (even if he is spiritually seeking J); e) disciplined in his care of himself and pays no attention to others.

Wife (husband): a) he has ingenuous perception like a child and he has wise attitude; b) rich; c) loving, first of all, herself, and attentively and invisibly caring for her husband; d) consistent; e) implacably and kindly persistent.

Apply all this to yourself.

How does this suit you? Is the president of your country like that? Are the leaders of spirituality and culture of your nation like that? Are your friends like that? What about your wife or husband? What about you with respect to your husbands (wives), children, your parents, your close friends and relatives?

And notice that everything must be satisfied successively, without skipping over a step, starting from “a” and finishing at “e”.

And, in the end, for a smile, there is a little story from frumich-а http://frumich.com/frumich/2008/11/05/navstrechu-krizisu/

“One day, pale as a ghost Minister of Finance appeared on television and declared:

- Financial crisis will not affect us. Because. I am telling you that for sure.

The population, being a good judge of officials’ declarations, turned the air blue and headed for shops to buy salt, matches and sugar in large quantities…

The following day extremely embarrassed Minister of Trade appeared on television and said:

- Supplies of bread and goods of first priority let us state proudly that famine and goods shortage is not going to threaten us. Here are the numbers.

- Oh! – said the population and bought flour and cereals…

Minister of Rural Economy has danced on the tribune to seem more convincing and said happily:

- Unprecedented harvest! Hopes for export! We are reviving! The granaries are overfull!

- Is that even so? – the population became terrified and ran to convert their savings into foreign currency…

- Prices for real estate are going to fall! Every student gets a penthouse! In the nearest future! – the Minister of Building blurted out without batting an eye.

- What’s going on there, eh? – howled the population and ran to buy kerosene, kerosene lamps, firewood and coal…

- Modern army on the contract basis. Tomorrow. And grenades of new system. The world has not seen such before. – Minister of Defense said imposingly. – Why not? We have countless multitude of money. Reserves, supplies and complete surplus.

- My gosh!.. – the population gave a squeak and started digging dugouts.

- Everything is a-sto-un-ding! Do you understand? A-STO-UN-DING!!! – President admonished. – We could build communism today. The only thing that stops us is that all of us will have nothing to do. That is why you can sleep well! It could not be more stable! The retired but caviar in buckets! I can foresee qualitative leap, burst and jump. And I see quantitative run! Advance with seven-league strides towards prosperity. Caribbean Sea is getting closer. We are going to threaten the world from here. A hundred and thirty centers of roses from every flowerbed. We are going to shorten milk yields. Cows cannot carry their dugs. The population is indignant at cheapness. South America is asking for becoming a part of us as s state farm. Hurray!

- Beasts! What kind of things are you preparing there for us? – screamed the population and changed their clothes for the clean”

Something more on business and for a smile.

“It is impossible to understand whether you are kind or stingy when you are beggarly… Unfortunately, it only can be seen when one has money. I have never seen a crowd that would stand around a beggar. He is surely generous, but one cannot beg him for even a penny. Everyone is standing by those who have money. “He is dishonest! – they shout, - Greedy. He has stolen everything from us!” Well, maybe. If you possess absolutely nothing and you have never possessed anything, it is very hard to understand what exactly has been stolen from you, though. And where all these have been lying before. And why have you not stolen it by yourself, at last. So, what could he have stolen from you if all your life you could have seen that there was nothing that could be stolen from you. He has to share – this is said truly. And let him steal, take risks, suffer and go to prison alone” M.M.Zhvanetsky

There is a problem of high complexity:

Simulate, please, two situations that have no connection between them:

1) inflation (hyperinflation) of dollar inside the USA;

2) inflation (hyperinflation) of dollar outside the USA.

3) and now bind them together and simulate them in duet (but it is necessary to understand that dollar inside the USA and dollar that was put on export are two absolutely different dollars)

There is a problem of even higher complexity:

Overlay the behavior of the other main currencies of the world on the first problem: euro, yen, Yuan, peso, pound, ruble, Swiss frank etc. a) How are these currencies going to behave themselves when the inflation (hyperinflation) of dollar inside the USA begins?

b) How are these currencies going to behave themselves when the inflation (hyperinflation) of dollar outside the USA begins?

c) How are these currencies going to behave themselves when the inflation (hyperinflation) of dollar begins both inside the USA and all over the rest world?

A hint:

1) In the dilemma - export industry or population, it is better to choose export industry as international markets are never empty and other countries will occupy them very soon, but the population have nowhere to go and they will even breed more. It is better to sacrifice the population and to save your export branches of industry. Nature acts in the same way: it sacrifices part of its population but saves the key competences it needs that the survived individuals have.

2) In the dilemma – country or currency, it is better to choose the country as you have to live in it, as for currency – it can be printed afresh. It is better to sacrifice currency but to save a country. It is not for the first time. Each country’s history knows such experience.

Current text was completely set and published on the 21st of April, 2009

Liubarov Volodymyr

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